Research On Measuring Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits Of Forestry Carbon Sequestration Projects

As an important supplementary mechanism in China’s carbon emissions trading,the development of forestry carbon sinks is of great significance to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Currently,with the continuous development of carbon trading market,forestry carbon sink projects include carbon sink income into the economic value generated by the project,but forestry carbon sink projects have high uncertainty,and high input costs and long time period,these characteristics bring risks to the project but also increase the opportunity value of the project.Traditional valuation methods do not take into account the characteristics of forestry carbon sink projects,and ignoring the opportunity value contained therein will make the project undervalued,so how to reasonably measure the project value is particularly critical.In this paper,the spruce carbon sequestration afforestation project in the Diebu forest area of Gansu Province was taken as the research object,and the carbon emission reduction and sequestration and value were accounted for respectively.（1）Amount of carbon sequestration:Firstly,a model was constructed to measure the physical amount of carbon emission reduction from forestry carbon sink projects,and the estimated physical amount of carbon emission reduction per unit area in the study area was calculated to be 10.82t CO₂e/hm²/a.Then,the emission reduction capacity and emission reduction potential were analyzed,and the spruce carbon sink afforestation project could exert the maximum carbon sink value within the crediting period of 20 years,and the carbon sink capacity and potential were large.（2）Carbon emission reduction value:On the basis of calculating the carbon sequestration of the project,starting from the characteristics of the project,the real option characteristics of the forestry carbon sequestration project are pointed out,incorporate the uncertainty faced by the project into the analytical framework of the project’s carbon emission reduction value assessment.Based on the real option theory,considering the uncertainty factors,a modified Black-Scholes（B-S）real option pricing model is derived.The results show that the value of the project option is 11.6314 million yuan.That is,the carbon sink option buyer only needs to pay an option premium of 11.6314million yuan,and can purchase the carbon sink with a total future value of 21.3208million yuan at an option strike price of 3.4197 million yuan after the expiration of the20-year project execution period.Considering the volatility of uncertain factors such as prices in reality,this paper combines fuzzy mathematics and real option theory to construct a fuzzy real option pricing model.,the results show that the value of the project option may be in the range of[1134.18,1192.39];Using traditional value assessment methods,the value of the project in the area was measured to be 9.6784million yuan,and the project value was obviously underestimated.After comparing and analyzing the results of the traditional NPV method,the modified B-S option pricing model and the fuzzy real option pricing model,it is concluded that the fuzzy real options have stronger applicability and operability.Through sensitivity analysis,it is concluded that carbon sink price is a key factor affecting the value of the project,and has a great impact on the project value.Finally,the investment decision of the project is analyzed from the perspective of investors.This paper aims to comprehensively and systematically evaluate the carbon emission reduction benefits of forestry carbon sequestration projects,provide valuable information for market investors（including forest farmers and corporate entities）,managers and forestry decision-makers,and provide reference for relevant departments to improve the pricing mechanism of forestry carbon sequestration.