Research On Safety Separation Of Paired Approach To Closely Spaced Parallel Runways Based On Monte Carlo Method

In the three years since the outbreak of the pandemic,it has been a crucial period for civil aviation.The industry has suffered significant setbacks due to the impact of the pandemic.However,with the gradual lifting of restrictions,the civil aviation industry is showing signs of a rapid and explosive recovery.The increasing number of flights has resulted in the pressing need for efficient and orderly operations at busy airports.The paired approach technology used for closely spaced parallel runways has been proven to be an effective solution to increase runway capacity and operational efficiency.The main focus of this research is to investigate the safety separation between the paired aircrafts,especially the front collision avoidance safety boundary.Based on the idea of Monte Carlo simulation,a paired approach three-dimensional kinematics model and a collision risk model have been established,conducting a large number of simulation experiments to obtain the minimum safety separation of paired approach.Further,change the parameter settings to analyze the relationship between various influencing factors and safety separation.The specific research work is as follows:Firstly,a three-dimensional kinematics model of the paired approach aircrafts is established,and the independent variable,dependent variable and coordinate system are set.Thus,the relative motion state of the paired aircrafts during the approach process can be displayed.During the simulation process,the model can record the specific positions of the paired aircrafts in real time,and further calculate the relative distance between the two aircrafts.Secondly,the collision risk model of the two paired approach aircrafts is constructed.Based on the basic idea of probability theory,the longitudinal,lateral and vertical collision risk models are established respectively from the perspectives of acceleration error,position error and navigation accuracy error.Thus,the total collision risk of the paired approach is obtained.Then,using the Monte Carlo simulation method,Python program code was written using Py Charm software.It creates the state space of the paired approach process and sets relevant parameters: the distance between runway center lines,distance and height of IF and FAF,speed difference between fore and aft aircraft,wake type,etc.The whole paired approach process was simulated,combined with three-dimensional kinematic model and collision risk model,based on the target level of safety,to determine the required safety separation between two paired aircrafts.Finally,by changing the parameter settings,the influence of the runway center line distance,the speed difference between the two aircrafts,the runway alignment mode and other factors on the safety separation was further analyzed.Taking Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport as an example,the approach procedures of runways 02L/20 R and02R/20 L are taken as the input parameters required by the model,and 100,000 simulations are carried out on different scenarios respectively.Then,data analysis is carried out on the simulation results,focusing on the trend of safety separation,and the correlation and influence between each factor and safety interval.