Analysis And Regional Clustering Research Of Provincial Residents’ Consumption Carbon Emission Structure In China

Controlling carbon dioxide emissions to deal with climate warming has become the consensus and challenge of all countries in the world.As one of the major carbon emitting countries in the world,China is under enormous pressure to save energy and reduce emissions.With the development of China’s economy,the effect of consumption in driving GDP has become more and more obvious.At the same time,with the continuous improvement of people’s living standards and the rapid increase in the level of urbanization,the carbon emissions caused by consumption have increased rapidly.As the basic unit of social terminal consumption,the massive carbon emissions caused by residents’ consumption affects the process of China’s "Carbon Neutrality".Therefore,scientific exploration of the carbon emission structure of China’s inter-provincial residents’ consumption is not only an expansion of the research field of carbon emissions,but also contributes to the structural upgrade of residents’ consumption,which is of great significance for China to achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality".Focusing on the theme of the carbon emission structure of residents’ consumption,the main contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: First,the carbon emissions of national and provincial residents’ consumption from 2011 to 2020 were calculated using the Consumer Lifestyle Approach(CLA).The research results show that the consumption carbon emission coefficients of different consumption types in China show a downward trend to varying degrees,and the carbon emission coefficients of residential consumption are larger than those of other categories in most years;the per capita consumption carbon emissions of Chinese residents and the per capita consumption of residents show The overall trend of synchronous growth;spatial analysis shows that China’s per capita consumption carbon emissions show the distribution characteristics of "high in the southeast,low in the central and western regions,high in developed regions,and low in underdeveloped regions".The location is directly related;the total per capita consumption carbon emissions in China is jointly affected by regional economic and demographic factors.Secondly,the Markov prediction model is used to predict the carbon emission structure of household consumption in 31 provinces in China in 2025 and 2030.The results show that there are differences in the retention probability of different consumption carbon emission types in the average probability transition matrix.With the rapid development of the residential industry represented by real estate during the Second Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period,the proportion of residential consumption carbon emissions will continue to rise slowly in the future consumption carbon emission structure;The proportion and changes of the economy are different,and the level of economic development is the primary factor to consider.Third,using the projection pursuit clustering method to conduct regional cluster analysis on the carbon emission structure of residents’ consumption in 31 provinces in China in 2020 and 2030,the results show that the regional changes in the central and western provinces are relatively obvious.Factor analysis of the differences between the four regions and regional changes in provinces.Finally,according to the research conclusions,targeted carbon dioxide emission reduction measures are proposed to provide a reference for the establishment of a low-carbon life model in the field of residents’ consumption.