Research On The Impact Of Global Value Chain Embedding On Trade Implied Carbon

There is a contradiction between the "carbon peak","carbon neutrality" goals and economic development.How to achieve the "dual carbon" goals while achieving economic growth is a difficult problem that China needs to solve.In 2014,China’s trade carbon emissions accounted for 30.8% of the global total emissions,export trade carbon emissions accounted for 21.7% of the production side emissions,and import trade carbon emissions accounted for 9.8% of the consumption side emissions.The emission pressure is enormous.With the development of the new international political and economic situation and the new requirements of multilateral talks on environmental protection,China’s emission reduction task will face even more severe challenges.The article establishes a model of the direct impact of global value chain embedding on trade implied carbon,and analyzes the indirect impact through scale effects,structural effects,and technological effects to understand the trade gains and environmental losses of participating in the global value chain.Research has found that in terms of export trade carbon,the deepening of location index and forward production length has a nonlinear effect of first promoting and then suppressing export trade carbon.The increase of forward participation,backward participation,and backward production length will promote export trade carbon emissions.In terms of import trade carbon,the continuous deepening of location index,forward participation,and forward production length has a nonlinear effect of first promoting and then suppressing import trade carbon,with backward participation having a promoting effect and backward production length having a inhibiting effect.From the perspectives of developed and developing countries,the improvement of location index has a more significant effect on the early promotion and late inhibition of carbon in developed countries’ export trade.The increase in forward production length has a more significant effect on the early promotion and late inhibition of carbon in developing countries’ export trade.An increase in backward participation will suppress carbon in developed countries’ export trade,The increase in backward participation and backward production length will promote the import of carbon from developed countries and suppress the import of carbon from developing countries.From the perspective of technology intensive and pollution intensive industries,the improvement of location index has a more significant effect on the early promotion and late inhibition of carbon emissions from polluting industries’ export trade.The improvement of backward participation is more significant on pollution intensive industries,the increase of backward production length has a more significant impact on technology intensive industries,and the improvement of backward participation has a inhibitory effect on carbon emissions from technology industries’ import trade,Promote pollution intensive industries.The scale effect has a significant positive promoting effect on carbon in import and export trade,while the structural effect has a significant positive promoting effect on carbon in export trade.The positive promoting effect on carbon in import trade is not significant,and the improvement of technological level has a negative inhibitory effect on carbon in import and export trade.The achievement of the "dual carbon" goal is of great significance for China’s economic development and environmental protection,and also helps to have a say in multilateral talks on international environmental protection.China can accelerate the green transformation of its economy by optimizing its import and export trade structure;Innovation drives development and accelerates the embedding of high-end links in global division of labor;Vigorously developing regional value chains and strengthening inter regional cooperation to achieve emission reduction tasks.