CO₂ Emission Transfer Embodied In Global Agricultural Trade And Impact Factors

In recent years,the increasing human activities have significantly changed the composition of the global atmosphere,resulting in a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions,which exhibited a significant impact on global climate change.Due to the largest proportion of anthropogenic greenhouse gases,CO₂ considered to be the most important contributor to global climate change.The food system contributed more than one third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.Due to the growth of global population and the rising demand for agricultural products,the agricultural trade have increased in the past years.Global agricultural trade has led to significant changes in the spatial distribution of CO₂ emissions,which has brought new challenges to CO₂emission reduction in agricultural systems.Therefore,it is of great policy significance to study the CO₂ emission transfer embodied in global agricultural trade and driving factors for the collaborative reduction of CO₂ emission in agricultural systems in various regions.In this study,based on the global multi-regional input-output table and the sectoral production-based CO₂ emissions from different countries in the GTAP 10 database,by using multi-regional input-output model,we estimated the consumption-based CO₂emissions of from 6 agricultural products related sectors in 14 regions worldwide in2004,2007,2011,and 2014,as well as the CO₂ emissions transfer embodied in global agricultural product trade.In addition,the structural decomposition analysis method was used to analyze the impact of major driving factors such as carbon emission intensity,input-output structure,final demand structure,and final demand scale on the carbon emissions embodied in global agricultural trade.The main results from this study are as follows:（1）Global production-based CO₂ emissions in the agricultural sector were 370.9million tons in 2004,365.2 million tons in 2007,357.8 million tons in 2011,and 372.0million tons in 2014,respectively.In 2014,the top five regions with production-based CO₂ emissions was China（94 million tons）,the United States（68.3 million tons）,Latin America（44.1 million tons）,the Middle East and North Africa（28.4 million tons）,and Western Europe（28.1 million tons）.Global consumption-based CO₂ emissions in the agricultural sector were 226.9 million tons in 2004,212.9 million tons in 2007,204.4million tons in 2011,and 217.2 million tons in 2014,respectively.In 2014,the largest consumption-based CO₂ emissions was from China（51.7 million tons）,followed by the United States（31 million tons）,the Middle East and North Africa（26.8 million tons）,Latin America（22.3 million tons）,and Western Europe（18.2 million tons）.Overall,higher production-based CO₂ emissions are from the world’s major grain producing regions,while higher consumption-based CO₂ emissions are from those regions with larger populations,higher dietary quality,or greater food waste.（2）The final demand of the agricultural sector in 2004 led to the largest CO₂emission in the energy sector,which were mainly concentrated in China（236.2 million tons）,South Asia（131.8 million tons）,the United States（100 million tons）,the Middle East and North Africa（96.9 million tons）and Western Europe（59 million tons）.Among the six agricultural sectors,the final demand for meat products led to the highest CO₂emission in the energy sector,with 146.8 million tons in 2004,152.7 million tons in2007,159.8 million tons in 2011 and 156.6 million tons in 2014 respectively.（3）In 2004,the largest net transfer of virtual CO₂ emissions embodied in agricultural trade was from Latin America to Western Europe（2.4 million tons）,followed by the United States to Northeast Asia（1.14 million tons）,Latin America to the Middle East and North Africa（1.09 million tons）and Latin America to China（1.05million tons）.In 2014,the largest net virtual transfer of CO₂ emissions was from Latin America to China（1.6 million tons）,followed by the United States to China（1.54million tons）,Latin America to the Middle East and North Africa（1.48 million tons）and Latin America to Western Europe（1.32 million tons）.Overall,the United States and Latin America were the primary net export regions with CO₂ emission induced by agricultural trade,while China,Western Europe,and the Middle East and North Africa were the main net import regions.（4）In 2004,the Latin American contributed 9.7%and 5.5%of the consumption-based CO₂ emissions from the agricultural sectors in Western Europe and Southeast Asia,respectively.The United States contributed 22%and 12.1%to Canada and Northeast Asia.In 2014,the contribution of Latin America to Southeast Asia increased to 10.1%,while that to Western Europe decreased to 7.6%.The contribution of the United States to Canada（21.3%）remained stable,while the contribution to Northeast Asia increased to 19.4%in 2014.（5）From 2004 to 2014,the global consumption-based CO₂ emissions from the agricultural sector increased by 1 million ton.The input-output structure,final demand structure,and final demand scale are the key driven factors that lead to the growth of consumption-based CO₂ emissions,which resulted an increase of 37 million tons,19.2million tons and 403.4 million tons of CO₂ emissions,respectively.However,CO₂emissions intensity decreased by 458.4 million tons in 2014 compared with 2004.The contributions of carbon emission intensity,input-output structure,final demand structure and final demand scale to the changes of global consumption-based CO₂emissions was-123.7%,10%,5.2%,and 108.9%,respectively.From 2004 to 2014 in a global perspective,the significant increase in the scale of expanding global agricultural trade posed challenges to CO₂ reduction in the agricultural sector.Each region can improve energy efficiency,reduce dependence on fossil fuels,optimize diet structure,reduce consumption of meat and dairy products,strengthen regional cooperation,and take multiple measures from both the production and consumption sides to cooperatively reduce global agricultural sector CO₂ emissions.