Research On Risk Assessment And Consequence Numerical Simulation Of Road Transport Of Hazardous Chemicals Based On GT-BN

Hazardous chemicals(hereinafter referred to as "hazardous chemicals")are indispensable and important raw materials in production and life,and most of them involve cross-regional road transportation.There are many factors affecting the transportation process,and accidents are often sudden,and the consequences of accidents are serious.Therefore,it is of great significance to reasonably identify the risk factors of road transport of hazardous chemicals,and formulate practical risk management and control measures for preventing and controlling road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals and reducing accident losses.In order to ensure the safety of road transportation of hazardous chemicals in my country and prevent accidents,this paper uses grounded theory,grey relational analysis,Bayesian network analysis,numerical simulation and other methods to conduct risk assessment research on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals.The main research results are as follows :(1)Collected and sorted out a large number of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals that occurred in our country from 2017 to 2020,and analyzed the temporal distribution,spatial distribution,accident form and types of hazardous chemicals involved.the results show that: The number of accidents decreases year by year;accidents mostly occur in April and August of the year and from 8:00 to 11:00 a day;regionally,the accident rate of road transport of hazardous chemicals in provinces with high GDP is also high;road changes and tunnels are High accident-prone sections;Class 3 flammable liquid hazardous chemicals are the most likely to cause accidents.(2)Based on the qualitative research method of grounded theory,the information of158 typical accident cases was summarized and analyzed through three-level coding,and 28 categories,12 main categories and 5 core categories were obtained.Through the drawing and analysis of the fishbone diagram,the main risk factors of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals are directly reflected.(3)Using the grey absolute correlation analysis,taking the number of accidents as the reference sequence and the 12 main categories as the comparison sequence,the grey absolute correlation degree was calculated,and the ranking of the influencing factors of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals in my country was obtained,and the accident factors were determined.significant risk factors.(4)Based on the structure learning and parameter learning of the Bayesian network,the Bayesian graph network structure is formed,the prior probability and conditional probability of each node factor are calculated,and the relationship between the factors is further quantified,which is obtained by forward inference in the state of key nodes,the probability of road transport accidents for hazardous chemicals is obtained.Then the sensitivity factors are obtained through reverse diagnostic reasoning and sensitivity analysis.(5)The ALOHA software is used to numerically simulate various accident consequences that may be caused by the leakage of LPG road transportation,and obtain the affected area of BLEVE,vapor cloud explosion UVCE,flash fire vapor cloud and simple leakage.Various methods are used to assess the risk of road transportation of hazardous chemicals in my country and numerically simulate the consequences of accidents,which provides a reference for active accident prevention,post-event emergency rescue and emergency avoidance.