Research On The Path Of Carbon Productivity Improvement In Manufacturing Industry Based On QCA-LRA

With global warming and energy and environmental problems coming to the fore,a low-carbon economy with "high energy efficiency and low emissions" as the core is gradually unfolding in the world.As a major carbon emitting country,China must also consider how to closely integrate the concept of low carbon economy with industrial development.The manufacturing industry is an important engine of China’s economic growth and a major sector of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China,so how to ensure stable economic growth while scientifically controlling carbon has become the core proposition of the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry.Low carbon economy emphasizes both "low carbon" and "economy",and these two dimensions can be summarized as the growth of carbon productivity in essence.Therefore,it is crucial to explore the complex mechanism of carbon productivity growth in manufacturing industry and find the path of carbon productivity improvement to realize the green and low-carbon transformation of manufacturing industry.This study uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to investigate the path of carbon productivity improvement in manufacturing.Firstly,we define the concepts of carbon emissions and carbon productivity,and sort out the main theories of related research.Secondly,we analyze the impact mechanism of technological innovation and environmental regulation on carbon productivity of manufacturing industry,and clarify the multiple concurrent causal relationships of carbon productivity improvement.After that,the development status and evolution trend of carbon emissions and carbon productivity in China’s manufacturing industry are measured and analyzed.Finally,28 sub-sectors in China’s manufacturing industry are selected as case samples,and the fs QCA and NCA systems are used to investigate the causal and complex mechanisms of carbon productivity improvement in manufacturing industry under different carbon emission intensities,to find out the driving paths of carbon productivity improvement,and to further compare and analyze the marginal effects of different paths using multivariate panel regression methods.The study finds that there are obvious industry heterogeneity in carbon emissions and carbon productivity in China’s manufacturing industry,and this heterogen eity also makes the carbon productivity improvement paths differ.There are three carbon productivity improvement paths in high and medium carbon manufacturing industries,namely,"energy-led","technology-foreign investment synergy" and "energy-foreign investment synergy",among which The "energy-led" path has the largest marginal effect,the "technology-foreign investment synergy" path is the second,and the "energy-foreign investment synergy" path is the smallest.There are only two carbon productivity i mprovement paths in low-carbon manufacturing industry,namely "energy structure-assisted" and "environment-technology synergy",among which the marginal effect of "energy structure-assisted" path is much larger than that of "environment-technology synergy".The marginal effect of the "energy structure-assisted" path is much larger than that of the "environment-technology synergy" path.In addition,the combined effect of the factors is greater than the sum of their net effects.Finally,based on the finding s,we propose policy implications for promoting carbon productivity in manufacturing.