Scenario Analysis And Countermeasures Of Carbon Emission From Road Mobile Sources Based On LEAP Model

With the rapid development of our economy and society,energy consumption is increasing rapidly,and carbon dioxide emissions of greenhouse gas increase rapidly.Transportation is one of the three major sources of carbon dioxide emission,and road mobile source is the main source of carbon dioxide emission in transportation.Shandong Province has a large number of mobile sources,and strict control of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions in the field of road traffic is the top priority to achieve the goal of"double carbon"in Shandong Province.Based on the above research background,this thesis firstly comprehensively summarizes the development status of road mobile sources in Shandong Province and relevant policies.By referring to relevant research and availability of data,road mobile sources in Shandong Province are divided into passenger transport sector and freight transport sector,and the passenger transport sector is further divided into individual transport and public transport.Secondly,based on regression analysis,combined with Gompertz model and Logistic model,SPSS software and Matlab tools were used to predict the future mobile sources in Shandong Province.On this basis,a road mobile source carbon emission model of Shandong Province was constructed based on LEAP model to predict and analyze future road transportation energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Shandong Province.Finally,based on the sorting out of relevant policies and the current situation of road mobile sources,three first-level scenarios are set up,namely baseline scenario,low-carbon optimization scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario.Under the first-level scenario of low-carbon optimization,three second-level sub-scenarios for optimization by single measures are set up,which are respectively policy optimization scenario,structure optimization scenario and technology optimization scenario.2015 is taken as the base year.The energy consumption and direct carbon emissions of road mobile sources in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2050 under different scenarios were predicted,and the carbon emission reduction potential of different scenarios was calculated and analyzed,and the statistical calculation data from2016 to 2020 was verified with the scenario analysis data.The results show that:firstly,terminal energy consumption intensity,energy consumption structure and transportation structure are the key factors affecting the carbon peak in the road transportation sector in Shandong Province;Secondly,the carbon emission reduction potential of the enhanced low-carbon scenario is nearly 20%,and the contribution rate of emission reduction is the largest,which has the best effect in controlling direct carbon emissions from road mobile sources in Shandong Province;thirdly,among the sub-scenarios of the low-carbon optimization scenario,from the optimization of individual measures,the optimization of technology is the best,the optimization of structure is the second best,and the optimization of policy is the last best,which means that the optimization of policy plays a guarantee role in the carbon emission reduction effect of road mobile sources,the optimization of structure plays a supporting role,and the optimization of technology plays a central role;fourthly,in the baseline scenario and low-carbon optimization scenario,the carbon emission reduction effect is not ideal when no further measures are taken or only a unilateral optimization measure is taken.Under this condition,it is difficult for Shandong Province to achieve the"dual carbon"strategic goal in the field of road traffic.Fifthly,according to the model prediction,if the comprehensive new energy development of road mobile sources is promoted reasonably,the gradual withdrawal of oil-powered vehicles from the market is guided,the transportation structure is optimized and the technological level innovation is strengthened,then the direct carbon emission from road mobile sources in Shandong Province can reach the peak goal around 2026,with the peak value of 115 million tons.Carbon emission in this thesis refers to CO₂ emission equivalent.Finally,based on the above research,from the perspectives of policy optimization,structure optimization,technology optimization,withdrawal of fuel mobile source from the market,and promoting the comprehensive development of new energy of road mobile source,this paper puts forward feasible paths to achieve carbon emission reduction in the road traffic field in Shandong Province,in order to provide certain reference value for the green development of road traffic in Shandong Province and the realization of carbon peak.