| Twenty-ten reports pointed out that "actively and steadily promote carbon peak carbon neutral,to achieve carbon peak carbon neutral is a broad and profound economic and social systemic changes.Based on China’s energy resource endowment,adhere to the first to establish and then break,planned and step-by-step implementation of carbon peak action." Carbon peak carbon neutrality is China’s solemn commitment to the world,and it is also a process that China is bound to achieve.According to the data from China Building Energy Conservation Association,the total energy consumption of the whole process of building in China will be 2.27 billion tce in 2020,accounting for 45.5% of the national social energy consumption,of which 1.06 billion tce will be consumed in the operation stage,accounting for more than 20%.As the main energy-using area,the building sector is the main responsible area for causing carbon emissions,and how to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality in the building sector as soon as possible is the key factor to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality in the whole society.Anhui is still in the stage of new urbanization,and the scale of urban and rural construction continues to increase as well as people’s high-quality pursuit of a better life,causing carbon emissions in the construction sector to continue to show growth for some time.It is especially important to understand the scale of development and demand increment of the construction sector in Anhui Province,analyze the current situation of carbon emission growth in the construction sector and its influencing factors,and find the appropriate implementation path of carbon peak in the construction sector in Anhui Province.Based on the LEAP modeling method and the energy-environmental accounting tool of LMDI decomposition analysis,this paper makes a prediction and analysis of the peak carbon emissions and the influence of different drivers on the carbon emission trend in the operation stage of the Anhui construction sector and proposes better technical paths and policy suggestions accordingly.The main work is as follows.(1)First,by consulting many sources such as Anhui Statistical Yearbook and Anhui Construction Statistical Yearbook,the basic situation of the construction sector in Anhui Province was systematically organized and counted,the current situation of urban and rural construction sectors was analyzed,the energy consumption situation and carbon emission situation of construction sector were analyzed and organized,and the related supporting facilities were organized and summarized,which laid the foundation for the subsequent analysis of influencing factors and model construction.(2)The LMDI decomposition of the industry-wide carbon emission in Anhui Province was carried out,and the effect of four different driving factors on the effect of the total population,the effect of GDP per capita,the effect of energy consumption intensity and the effect of energy consumption structure on the effect of industry-wide carbon emission and the development trend were analyzed.It identifies the drivers of the carbon emission model in Anhui Province established by the LEAP model and concludes that energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure are the main drivers of energy saving and carbon reduction in the construction sector,which prepares for the next step of carbon emission peak forecast in the construction sector in Anhui Province.(3)Based on the LEAP model,a carbon emissions model for the Anhui Province’s building sector during the operation was constructed,and the impacts of factors such as building energy efficiency standards,existing building renovation,rural renewable energy application,and public building photovoltaic application on carbon emissions in the building sector were analyzed.Using scenario analysis,the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario,enhanced low-carbon scenario,peak scenario,enhanced peak scenario,and neutral scenario were designed,and the predicted peak carbon emissions in Anhui Province under different scenarios were analyzed.At the same time,the impacts of carbon emissions in the building sector in Anhui Province were studied,and the best implementation path for achieving peak carbon emissions in the building sector before 2030 and 2060 under the neutral scenario was obtained.Finally,this study discussed and provided recommendations on technologies and policies for new and existing buildings,building energy consumption structures,and urban-rural construction space layouts to achieve carbon reduction targets and promote sustainable development.Figure [37] table [6] reference [62]... |
PDF Full Text Request