Research On Recycling Potential And Environmental Impact Assessment Of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery In Shandong Province Under The Background Of The Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutrality Goals

Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,new energy vehicles as an alternative choice of fuel vehicles have become the development direction of the automotive industry in the future.With the rapid promotion and application of new energy vehicles,power batteries,as the core components of new energy vehicles,have entered a large-scale scrapping period.Carrying out life cycle environmental impact assessment and recycling potential research on the power battery recycling process is of great significance to the sustainable and healthy development of the power battery recycling industry in Shandong Province.In this study,the life cycle assessment model of the power battery recycling process is established,the recycling process of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery is evaluated,the environmental hot spots in the recycling stage are analyzed,and the optimization path of key links is discussed.The prediction model of new energy vehicle ownership in Shandong Province was established,combined with the Weibull life distribution model,the future power battery scrap in Shandong Province was predicted,and the overall environmental benefits of future power battery recycling were analyzed.Finally,the current power battery recycling management policies are sorted out and analyzed to provide a scientific basis for the formulation and improvement of relevant policies in the future.The results show that:（1）The environmental performance of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery recycling process is the echelon utilization technology.Among the recycling technologies,the two wet recovery technologies of ternary lithium batteries performed well in the three indicators of non-living resource consumption potential,eutrophication potential and global warming potential,and the fire recovery process performed well in acidification potential and human toxicity.For the recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries,the wet recycling process has better environmental performance in the consumption potential of non-biological resources and global warming potential,and the environmental benefits of fire recycling in acidification potential,eutrophication potential and human toxicity are higher.Through the optimization analysis of key links,the multi-party joint recycling model performs best in the collection phase.In the recycling phase,sensitivity analysis has found that the environmental impact of the recycling phase can be improved by changing the power structure or reducing material consumption.（2）By 2030,the annual scrap of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will be 15.97～17.56 GWh and13.34～14.62 GWh,respectively,and the cumulative scrap volume in 2030 will be76.66～82.29 GWh and 55.58～59.41 GWh,respectively.（3）By 2030,the environmental emissions that can be avoided by the echelon utilization of the two power batteries are5.56E+06～6.11E+06 t CO₂ eq,1.32E+06～1.45E+06 t CO₂ eq.Among the recycling technologies,the wet A and wet B of ternary lithium battery recovery have the best environmental benefits,and the wet recycling process of lithium iron phosphate batteries has the best environmental benefits.In the future,the two power battery market proportions are different,and the environmental impact will also be quite different.（4）In view of the main problems found in the policy sorting and analysis,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for the future power battery management from the three levels of government,enterprises and public individuals.