Study On The Effect And Influencing Factors Of Land Use Carbon Emission In Harbin City

In the context of "carbon peaking and carbon neutral",there is still a huge potential for land use carbon emission reduction to be explored.Therefore,it is important to clarify the spatial and temporal distribution of regional land use change and carbon emission,and to study the main factors affecting the change of land use carbon emission to optimize the regional land use structure and reduce the regional carbon emission.Based on this,this paper takes Harbin city as the research object,and analyzes the land use change in Harbin city based on land use data,energy consumption data and economic statistics from 2000 to 2020,measures the land use carbon emission and analyzes its spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,and decomposes the influencing factors of land carbon emission in Harbin city based on LMDI model.Finally,we propose suggestions for the future development of low-carbon economy and rational use of land structure in Harbin City,taking into account the degree of contribution of each influencing factor to carbon emissions in the region.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The main land use types in Harbin city are arable land and forest land,which together account for more than 80% of the total area of the city,with arable land mainly distributed in the northwestern plains and along the rivers,and forest land distributed in the northern and central parts of the whole city as well as in the hilly and mountainous areas in the southeast.during2000-2020,the overall land use types in the city have changed significantly,and the land use change trends are consistent with China’s The overall trend of land use is consistent with the overall trend of China:It shows that arable land is transformed into urban and rural construction land,forest,grass and water area are mainly transformed into arable land,and the dynamic attitude of comprehensive land use reaches 0.80%,and the dynamic absolute value of urban single land use is influenced by economic development and land policy in different periods,with obvious stage characteristics.Cultivated land and construction land show an increasing trend,with single motive attitude of 1.33% and 7.44% respectively;forest land,water area,grassland and future land show a decreasing trend,shrinking by 3.5%,45.9%,21% and 0.5% respectively;among them,water area and construction land have the largest single motive attitude of-9.2% and 7.44% respectively.A total of 794,309hm2 of urban land was changed,and arable land was the largest land category in terms of conversion area.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the land use of Harbin city shows the characteristics of "carbon loss",and the overall carbon offsetting ability is obviously weakened.carbon dioxide absorption capacity has decreased.The changes in carbon emissions from land in each district and county(city)are consistent with Harbin City.The spatial distribution pattern of net carbon emissions in the city shows the characteristics of high in the west-low in the east,and the high value areas of net carbon emissions are distributed in Daoli District,Xiangfang District and Nangang District,and the adjacent Bayan County and Bin County have reduced carbon emissions;Tonghe County is the only carbon absorption area.During the study period,the overall spatial distribution of net carbon emissions in the city showed the characteristics of "hot in the west-cold in the east",and the clustering of high-high land carbon emissions among regions increased year by year.The results of land use carbon emission efficiency measurement show that the carbon emission per unit of output value in Harbin City shows a decreasing trend,with a decrease of 0.4 tons per 10,000 yuan and an average annual decrease rate of 3%;the carbon emission intensity per capita and the carbon emission per land in the city grow rapidly,with a net increase of 0.99 tons per person and 1.77 tons per hm2 respectively.(3)The decomposition results of LMDI influencing factors in Harbin show that from 2000 to2020,land carbon emission intensity,land use structure and economic development level play a positive role in promoting the total land use carbon emission in the city,while land use economic efficiency and population scale show a negative role in inhibiting the total land use carbon emission.The cumulative contribution values of each influencing factor to the growth of carbon emissions in the city are 8,659,800 tons,734,100 tons,17,630,200 tons,-17,481,000 tons and-149,200 tons,respectively.The contribution of each influencing factor to the change of regional carbon emissions between different periods has different degrees of mutual offsetting effect,and the land use economic efficiency factor has the strongest carbon offsetting effect on the economic development factor.In terms of regional differences,the cumulative effect of land use carbon emission influencing factors is higher in urban areas than in other counties(cities);the population scale in urban areas shows a driving effect on the growth of regional land carbon emission;the role of land use structure of each district and county(city)on the change of regional land carbon emission changed from promoting to inhibiting in 2010.(4)Suggestions for the future low-carbon land use in Harbin include: scientifically adjusting the land use structure,optimizing the proportion of regional carbon sinks and carbon sources;adjusting the energy use structure,improving the efficiency of clean energy use;optimizing the industrial structure,reducing the proportion of high-carbon emission industries;guiding the balanced distribution of population,improving the population’s awareness of low-carbon environmental protection;strengthening low-carbon technological innovation,and establishing a low-carbon technical support system.