Research On The Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In The Paper Industry

With the continuous advancement of China’s industrialization process,China’s carbon emissions have ranked first in the world.In order to promote sustainable development in China,the Chinese government promises to strive to achieve carbon peak by 2030.As a key emission industry,the paper industry has the characteristics of high resource consumption and high dependence on fossil energy,as well as the development of circular economy.It has natural green attributes,and its carbon peak situation is of great significance for China to achieve its carbon peak target on schedule.In this context,exploring the feasibility of achieving carbon peaking in the paper industry before 2030,providing reference for the path of carbon peaking in the paper industry,and helping the paper industry clarify the direction of future carbon reduction has become an urgent practical problem to be solved.In view of this,this study is based on the environmental Kuznets curve theory,sustainable Development theory theory,and Low-carbon economy theory.First,the paper industry’s economic development and energy consumption development in 2001-2020 were systematically analyzed,and the carbon emissions of the paper industry in 2001-2020 were calculated using the emission coefficient method,providing data support for subsequent research.At the same time,the Tapio elastic decoupling model was used to further analyze the decoupling situation between economic development,energy consumption,and carbon emissions in the paper industry;Secondly,based on the extended STIRPAT model,the energy dimension was added to the three dimensions of population,economy,and technology,and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the paper industry were identified.The direction and extent of each influencing factor on carbon emissions in the paper industry were explored through ridge regression,and further validation was conducted to determine whether the ridge regression equation can be used to predict future carbon emissions in the paper industry.Then,the Scenario analysis method is used to set three typical scenarios that may appear in the paper industry in the future,namely,the baseline scenario,the policy regulation scenario,and the enhanced energy conservation scenario.Combined with the Monte Carlo simulation method,the development trend of carbon emissions in the paper industry in the future is dynamically predicted,and the peak time and peak amount of carbon emissions in the paper industry under the three scenarios are compared and analyzed.Finally,relevant suggestions were proposed from the perspectives of the paper industry and the government in response to the research findings.Based on the above research content,the main research conclusions are as follows.(1)From 2001 to 2020,the overall carbon emissions of the paper industry showed an increasing trend,but the growth rate gradually slowed down.Meanwhile,from 2001 to 2020,the overall decoupling effect of carbon emissions in the paper industry was mainly weak decoupling,with good decoupling effects.The energy-saving decoupling effect is also mainly weak decoupling,and the variation is basically consistent with the total decoupling effect;The decoupling effect of emission reduction is mainly characterized by expansion negative decoupling in the initial stage,expansion connection in the middle stage,and weak negative decoupling in the final stage,with relatively complex changes.In the future,emission reduction work should be further implemented.(2)The energy structure,employment scale,research talents,economic development,and research funds have a positive promoting effect on the carbon emissions of the paper industry.Among them,the energy structure has the greatest impact,which is in line with the carbon emission characteristics of the paper industry;The impact of research funding and talent is relatively weak,and the emission reduction effect is not significant.In the future,it is necessary to focus on increasing research support and accelerating breakthroughs in core emission reduction technologies;However,energy intensity and carbon intensity have a negative inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the paper industry,and promoting a sustained decline in energy and carbon intensity remains an important emission reduction goal for the paper industry.Meanwhile,the historical data fitting analysis results show that the regression model of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the paper industry constructed in this study can serve as a prediction model for future carbon emissions in the paper industry.(3)In different scenarios,the development trend of carbon emissions in the paper industry varies.Under the baseline scenario,carbon emissions continue to grow,making it difficult for the paper industry to achieve carbon peak before 2030;Under the policy regulation scenario,the maximum probability of carbon emissions reaching its peak will be around 144.64 million tons by2030;Under the scenario of enhanced energy conservation,the maximum probability of carbon emissions will peak in 2025,with a peak amount of approximately 145.86 million tons.At the same time,under the scenario of enhanced energy conservation,the carbon emissions of the paper industry will decrease more significantly after reaching the peak.