| With the advancement of urbanization and industrialization,land resources,as a basic resource,are becoming more and more prominent in social and economic development,so the allocation of land resources is especially crucial to balance the development interests of all parties,and the long-standing lack of interconnection of various plans in China has led to a more common phenomenon of multiple conflicting plans,which further leads to the frequent occurrence of regional land use conflicts.Since the 18 th National Congress,issues such as ecological civilization construction,food security,and high-quality development have been elevated to an unprecedented level,and in this context,it is particularly urgent to promote the integration of multiple plans and remedy the phenomenon of land use conflicts.In order to explore the spatial and temporal evolution pattern,causes and management strategies of land use conflict,this paper takes Poyang Lake area in water-land transition zone as the research object and analyzes the land use change characteristics of the study area from1990 to 2020 and The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in Poyang Lake area from 1990 to 2020 and their driving factors are measured,and the spatial distribution pattern of land use conflicts under four scenarios of natural development,arable land protection,economic development priority and sustainable development in 2035 are dynamically simulated,and corresponding countermeasures for conflict mitigation are proposed based on the research results.The main conclusions obtained are as follows.(1)The spatial pattern of land use in Poyang Lake area is roughly distributed in a ring shape with Poyang Lake as the core,and the unused land,grassland,arable land,construction land and forest land are in order to the periphery.There is no significant change in land use structure in recent 30 years,and arable land and forest land are the main land use types in the area,and the growth rate of construction land is obviously faster than other land types,and its expansion sources are mainly arable land,forest land and water area.(2)The most suitable size of particle size for landscape index calculation of Poyang Lake area is 120 m,and the magnitude size is 3km*3km.from the spatial characteristics of land use conflict in Poyang Lake area,the overall spatial distribution pattern is that the conflict degree of Poyang Lake coastal area is significantly higher than that of peripheral areas,the conflict degree of southern area is generally higher than that of northern area,the conflict degree of plain area is higher than that of mountain and hilly area,and the conflict of river The conflict on both sides is higher than other areas,while the conflict values in some sandy areas with fragile ecological environment and water-land intersection zone are also higher than the peripheral areas.In addition,the land use conflict index in Poyang Lake area shows significant spatial positive correlation and clustering phenomenon,and the trend of this spatial clustering is increasing.(3)From the characteristics of temporal dynamic change of land use conflict,the conflict in most areas of the study area from 1990 to 2005 is in a stable and controllable state,the change of conflict in urban areas is not significant,the change of land use conflict value in rural and county border areas is larger,and the competition for arable land resources in rural areas is the main expression of conflict in this period.2005-2020 land use conflict The area where the land use conflict index increased was larger than the previous period,and the level of conflict increased more sharply,and the center of gravity of conflict gradually shifted from rural to urban areas.In addition,there is a close interactive response between land use conflict and land use change,and the period of large land use change is also the period of intensified land use conflict.(4)Under the condition of normal level,the conflict level of land and water use in the interlacing zone of Poyang Lake is increasing roughly from the lake body to about 2000 meters outward,while the conflict index of the area outside 2000 meters decreases.The land-water interlocking zone of the main rivers in Poyang Lake area,on the other hand,shows a trend of decreasing conflict index from the center of the rivers to the outside.With the socio-economic development and the adjustment of production structure,the high conflict condition of the interlacing zone has been moderated.(5)The spatial differentiation of land use conflict in Poyang Lake area has been constrained by the natural environmental background conditions such as elevation and slope,but with the development of social economy,the probability of conflict phenomenon induced by human and social economic factors such as urban economic development vitality and population aggregation is increasing,and there are some differences in the causes and driving mechanisms of conflict phenomenon in different periods.In addition,the interaction among different factors will strengthen the explanatory strength of the spatial divergence of conflict indices and intensify the degree of land use conflicts.(6)The spatial pattern of land use conflicts in 2035 will continue the distribution of 2005-2020 in general,but there are significant differences in the degree of conflicts in different scenarios in local areas.Under the natural development scenario,the spatial conflict values of major towns and cities in the region will still increase,but the conflict values of small and medium-sized towns and rural areas will decrease to different degrees compared with those in 2020;under the arable land protection scenario,the conflict values of major food production areas and agricultural production areas in the region are better protected,and the conflict values have decreased;under the economic development priority scenario,the conflict values of major towns and cities increase to some extent Under the scenario of sustainable development,the rising trend of conflict index in urban areas is better curbed,and the conflict degree in the transition zone between land and water is also significantly reduced.The results of reconciliation assessment of land use conflict in Poyang Lake area under different scenarios show that sustainable development scenario can effectively alleviate the conflict degree in high conflict areas,ease the conflict between human and land,and realize the balanced development of ecological protection and economic development,which is a reasonable development direction choice for Poyang Lake area in the future. |
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