Dynamic Study On The Embodied Carbon Emissions And Sequestration In The Northwest Region In The Past Decade

Since the reform and opening-up policy,China’s carbon dioxide emissions have become the largest in the world as industrialization and urbanization have accelerated.To address this challenge,China proposed a plan to achieve the"dual carbon"goal in September 2020,in which"emission reduction and carbon sequestration"were considered effective means to achieve this goal.By studying the dynamic changes between carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration capacity in the production processes of various regions,it is helpful to clarify the carbon emission responsibility among regions,develop emission reduction measures,and provide a theoretical basis for achieving the"dual carbon"goal.In this paper,a multi-regional input-output model was adopted to analyze the embodied carbon emissions and trade volume of the Northwest region（provinces）in different industries over the past decade.The carbon sequestration capacity of the Northwest region（provinces）was studied to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and vegetation sequestration.The main contents and conclusions are as follow:（1）Over the past decade,the embodied carbon trade in the Northwest region of China has shown a net input pattern with a net input of 192.82 Mt/year.Shaanxi（154.83Mt/year）and Xinjiang（121.51 Mt/year）are the largest contributors to embodied carbon emissions in the Northwest region.As time goes on,the amount of embodied carbon emissions transferred from the Northwest region to the East China region has gradually decreased,while the transfer of embodied carbon emissions to the Central China,South China,and Southwest China regions has shown an increasing trend.（2）From the perspective of industry structure,the embodied carbon emission intensity of the energy industry in the northwest region of China is relatively high,at 4.35t/10,000 yuan,which accounts for 86.8%of the total carbon emissions.The supply of high-carbon products from the northwest region to other areas has continued to grow,with the energy industry at 324.66 Mt/10,000 yuan and heavy manufacturing at 62.38Mt/10,000 yuan.The high-pollution and high-consumption heavy industry is still an important pillar of economic development in the region.In addition,the northwest region has seen an increasing trend in providing low-carbon products such as light manufacturing,agriculture,and services to the central,southern,and southwestern regions of China.（3）In terms of vegetation carbon sequestration,the overall trend in the Northwest region is increasing,but the rate of increase is slow(10.81 g C·m^-2·a^-1).Regions with unchanged carbon sequestration account for 81.43%of the total carbon sequestration area,while regions with an increase in carbon absorption account for 17.67%,and those with a decrease only account for 0.43%.Shaanxi and Gansu provinces have the highest vegetation carbon sequestration,with 361.91 Mt and 558.48 Mt,respectively,among the five provinces in the Northwest region.Compared to Qinghai（4.22%）,the increasing trend of vegetation carbon sequestration is more obvious in Shaanxi（48.74%）and Ningxia（43.38%）.（4）The carbon sequestration rate of vegetation in the Northwest region has increased by 10%,which is significantly lower than the increase rate of implicit carbon emissions（143%）.However,the implicit carbon emissions in Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,and Xinjiang（215.63 Mt/year,122.22 Mt/year,36.48 Mt/year,and 223.04 Mt/year,respectively）currently account for 59%,22%,9%,and 21%of their absorption thresholds,respectively.In contrast,the implicit carbon emissions in Ningxia（111.88 Mt/year）have exceeded its absorption threshold（39.68 Mt/year）.The research results indicate that from 2007 to 2017,the continuous increase of carbon emissions in the Northwest region was mainly caused by the high-intensity embodied carbon emissions from the energy industry.Therefore,while improving the industrial energy efficiency,the Northwest region（each province）should adopt measures to restrict the development of heavy industry.In addition,other regions of the country should provide corresponding economic compensation for the environmental degradation caused by the Northwest region as a net importer of embodied carbon trade.