Water Ecological Risk Assessment And Zoning Control In Anhui Section Of Huaihe River Basin

With the influences of factors such as population growth,economic development,and environmental pollution,the aquatic ecosystem in river basins is facing increasing pressure and threats.The balance between the development of human society and economy and the protection of water ecological environment is the key link of high quality development of river basin.Identifying water ecological risk sources,carrying out water ecological risk assessment and simulation prediction research in Anhui Section of the Huaihe River Basin,and putting forward regional control suggestions can effectively promote the process of ecological civilization construction in the basin,and provide scientific reference for the improvement and sustainable development of water ecological security pattern in Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin.Based on the research progress of water ecological risk and related theories,this paper investigates the population,economy and environment development in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin,and analyzes the prominent problems existing in the healthy development of water ecology in the study area.The water ecological risk index system of Anhui Section of Huaihe River Basin is constructed from four aspects:risk,exposure,vulnerability and management ability.In order to give consideration to indicator variability and conflict,the CRITIC method is used to give weight reasonably.The grey target model is used to analyze the change characteristics of water ecological risk in Anhui Section from 2012 to 2021.With the help of Standard Deviation Ellipse method,the spatial change direction and distribution characteristics of water ecological risk in the study area are described from the perspective of global space.The ARIMA model is used to predict the water ecological risk of Anhui section.Based on the change of water ecological risk level,Anhui Section was divided into degraded area,stable area and elevated area.Specific countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to reduce the water ecological risk,so as to realize the zoning control of the basin area.The research results show that:(1)The impact of risk factors on the ecological risk of basin water from high to low is ranked as follows: hazard,vulnerability,exposure and governance capacity.The key indicators affecting the ecological risk of water in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin are the area of soil erosion,the intensity of drought and flood disasters,and the proportion of water quality lakes in the third class or higher.(2)From 2012 to 2021,the ecological risk of water in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin showed a "N" shaped change,and the risk level of water ecology in each year of the study period was at a medium level of risk level III.The order of ecological risk of water in cities and districts in the Anhui section from high to low is Lu’an,Huainan,Chuzhou,Huaibei,Fuyang,Bozhou,Bengbu,and Suzhou.The VIKOR method sorting results are the same as those of the gray target model,verifying the scientificity and effectiveness of the gray target model calculation results.(3)The center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse of the ecological risk of water in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin from 2012 to 2021 as a whole fluctuates in a "Z" shape and moves northeastward.The specific migration path is north-east-southwest-southeast.(4)The ecological risk of water in the Anhui section is predicted to rise year by year in the future.But the increase is not significant.The risk level of water ecology is relatively stable,and the predicted risk level is at a medium level of risk level III.The degraded area includes Bozhou,Fuyang,and Chuzhou.The stable area includes Huainan,Huaibei,and Bengbu.And the improved area includes Suzhou and Lu’an.In conclusion,for the degraded area,water ecological restoration should be the core,and key factors for increasing risk should be grasped;for the stable area,a "prevention-oriented" water ecological risk prevention and control system should be established;for the improved area,the "prevention-oriented" principle should be adhered to,and the stepwise optimization of water ecological risk should be achieved with the help of the environment.Figure [35] Table [20] Reference [103]...