Spatiotemporal Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of Carbon Emissions From Frovincial Energy Consumption In China

Carbon emissions from energy consumption is the main causes of global warming.In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,all countries in the world bear the corresponding responsibility for emission reduction.According to statistical data analysis,China’s total carbon emissions have ranked first in the world at present,so it is urgent to solve the problem of carbon emissions.Therefore,China proposed the "double carbon" goal at the 75th United Nations General Assembly.Differences in provincial economic development level and resource endowment lead to differences in energy consumption and consumption structure.It is essential to grasp the spatio-temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions of energy consumption and identify its driving factors to achieve the goal of "double carbon".Based on the relevant statistical data of China from 2003 to 2019,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption at the national,regional and provincial levels.Based on the STIRPAT model,this paper analyzes the impact of population,wealth,technology and natural environment on carbon emissions.Secondly,cocsidering the government regulation,market regulation and the coping strasegies of production consumers,the carbon emission driving mechanism model is constructed from a multidimensional perspective.Using panel data.analysis,intermediary and regulatory effect test methods,the path of various factors on carbon emissions is screened from the national and provincial perspectives.The results show that:in terms of carbon emissions evolution,China’s carbon emissions are in the growth stage on the left side of the inverted curve,and the increase tends to be gentle;generally more in the north and less in the south,and more in the west and less in the east,and have obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.At the national level,from the direct driving factons of carbon emissions,there is an inverted "U" type relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions.Economic growth,urbanization,energy structure expressed by coal proportion,temperature,international trade and domestic trade are positively driving carbon emissions.Industrial structure expressed by the proportion of tertiary industry,population structure expressed by the proportion of people over 65 years old and energy prices are negatively driving carbon emissions.From the perspective of indirect driving factors of carbon emissions,technological innovation plays a negative mediating role between environmental regulation and carbon emissions,energy price plays a positive moderating role between them,and domestic trade and international trade play a negative moderating role between them.At the provincial level,from the perspective of the direct driving factor of carbon cmissions,there are three types of relationships between environmental regulation and carbon emissions:"U ",inverted "U" and linear.Economic growth positively drives carbon emissions in each province,while energy price negatively drives carbon emissions in each province.The driving effects of other factors on carbon emissions show provincial differences.From the perspective of indirect driving factors of carbon emissions,the negative mediating effect of technological innovation is only obvious in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Shandong,Henan,Sichuan,Guizhou,Shaanxi,Gansu and Xinjiang provinces.Energy prices positively regulate the emission reduction effect of environmental regulation,and domestic and international trade negatively regulate the emission reduction effect of environmental regulation.