Quantification And Multi-scenario Simulation Of Coupling Relationship Between Ecological Compensation And Economic Development In The Yangtze River Basin

In the context of the new era,China is moving toward more modernization,more information technology,and a higher level of openness.The rapid socio-economic development has brought profound impact on the global ecosystem,and with the gradual strengthening of the role of human activities in interfering with the natural environment,environmental problems have become increasingly prominent,which also brings a major challenge to the construction of ecological civilization.As an important economic tool to alleviate production development and environmental protection,it is important to clarify the coupling relationship between ecological compensation and economic development and its mechanism of action to scientifically formulate ecological compensation mechanism and realize the coordinated play of regional ecological compensation and economy.Taking the Yangtze River basin as the research area,this thesis firstly measured the ecological compensation standard based on the opportunity cost method and analyzed the variation pattern of ecological compensation in time and space;secondly,a coupling coordination degree model was introduced to quantitatively analyze the coupling stages of ecological compensation and economic development in the Yangtze River basin as well as the types of coupling coordination;finally,Finally,the system dynamics model was used to predict the future trends of ecological compensation and economic development by quantitative simulation,combining the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)framework,setting sustainability(SSP1),middle of the road(SSP2),regional rivalry(SSP3),inequality(SSP4)and fossil-fueled development(SSP5),and conducting multiscenario simulation prediction,comparing and analyzing the evolution trends of ecological compensation and economic development under different The scenarios were used to compare and analyze the evolutionary trends of ecological compensation and economic development under different scenarios,and to find the optimal scenario.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,both direct opportunity cost and indirect in the Yangtze River Basin showed an increasing trend.In terms of time series changes,the direct opportunity cost increased from 12226057.61 million yuan in 2010 to 29773125.61 million yuan in2020;the indirect opportunity cost increased from 12526659.54 million yuan in 2010 to2594875.13 million yuan in 2020;in terms of the proportion of ecological compensation,most provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Basin have a greater proportion of direct opportunity cost than indirect opportunity cost.The direct opportunity cost is greater than the indirect opportunity cost.The spatial pattern distribution of direct opportunity cost,indirect opportunity cost and total opportunity cost in the Yangtze River basin showed significant spatial variability,with an overall spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west and alternating distribution,and a local distribution pattern of highhigh aggregation and low-low aggregation.(2)The overall level of coupling and coordination between ecological compensation and economic development in the Yangtze River basin is relatively lagging behind,but there is a trend toward better development in the future over time.1)From 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive evaluation index of the overall economic development subsystem of the Yangtze River basin ranged from 0.062 to 0.442,and the comprehensive evaluation index of the ecological compensation subsystem ranged from 0.059 to 0.387.The economic development subsystem was always in the leading position and was the main driving force affecting ecological compensation and economic development.2)From2010 to 2020,the level of coupled and coordinated development in the Yangtze River Basin was relatively lagging behind,and the type of coupled coordination was mainly on the verge of disorder and barely coordinated,with an overall trend of maintaining stability or slowly rising,and a small decline in individual provinces and cities.3)In terms of spatial distribution,the eastern region has a high degree of coupling coordination and was basically in primary coordination or barely coordinated;the central region has a low degree of coupling coordination and was basically on the verge of dissonance;the western region has the lowest degree of coupling coordination and was basically in mild dissonance.(3)The development path of different policy orientations in different scenarios directly affects the trend of ecological compensation and economic development.1)The direct opportunity costs showed an upward trend in all five scenarios;indirect opportunity costs showed an upward trend in all provinces and cities except for a decline in Fujian Province;the change pattern of ecological compensation is basically similar to direct opportunity costs,which showed an upward trend,indicating that direct opportunity costs dominated the change of ecological compensation,and the overall ecological compensation was more dominated by SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios.2)GDP and GDP per capita showed an upward trend under the five scenarios,which was SSP5>SSP1>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3.The resource-dependent development model could greatly promote economic development.R&D investment was showed as SSP1>SSP5>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3,indicating that the sustainable development model pays more attention to scientific and technological progress.3)In terms of spatial distribution,the regional variability of direct opportunity cost,indirect opportunity cost and ecological compensation were significant,and the overall distribution pattern under different scenarios was high in the east and low in the west,with alternating staggering;the regional variability of GDP and R&D investment increased significantly over time,and the distribution pattern of GDP per capita was high in the east and low in the west under different scenarios.(4)Based on the SSP2 scenario,the trends of the other four scenarios were compared and analyzed.The changes of ecological compensation and GDP under the SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios were consistent,and they were higher than the other two scenarios.Among them,the SSP5 scenario has the most significant effect on economic growth,and it also needed to invest more ecological compensation.Under the SSP1 scenario,R&D investment was more,and the progress of science and technology has a higher effect on the development of environment and economy.Therefore,the SSP1 scenario that follows the concept of sustainable development was the optimal scenario.