Analysis On The Impact Of ICT Development Level On The Indirect Carbon Emissions Of The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yellow River

As the living standard of residents improves,the indirect carbon emissions of residents’ consumption continue to increase,which poses a great challenge to the achievement of the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals.The indirect carbon emissions of residents are structurally heterogeneous,with differences in indirect carbon emissions arising from physiological,security,social and self-actualization needs.At the same time,the rapid development of information and communication technology(ICT)has subtly influenced residents’ lifestyle and consumption habits and promoted consumption upgrading,which further influences residents’ indirect carbon emissions.Cities with different income levels have great differences in the level of ICT acquisition,use and application of residents.How do ICT affect the indirect carbon emissions of different demand levels? This has become an urgent question for residents’ sustainable consumption under the digital revolution.Therefore,according to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory,the indirect carbon emissions per capita are classified into four types: physiological needs,security needs,social needs and self-actualization needs,and the indirect carbon emissions at different levels of needs are measured in 58 cities in five provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River municipal area between 2007 and 2017,and their spatial and temporal variation characteristics are analyzed,and then the influence mechanism of ICT development level on indirect carbon emissions is explored.The article focuses on establishing a theoretical analysis framework of the impact of ICT development on indirect carbon emissions,and analyzes the spatial effects,heterogeneous characteristics and mediating effects of the impact of ICT development level on indirect carbon emissions using the spatial Durbin model and the mediating effects model.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The ICT development level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River municipalities has been improving during 2007-2017,but the development is unbalanced among regions.58 cities have continuously increased their ICT development index(IDI),and the average value of IDI has increased from 0.004 to 0.008 with an average annual growth rate of 7.18%.The scope of the higher level of ICT development area has been expanding and forming a provincial capital city-centered high-value clustering area.The level of ICT development in Shandong’s municipalities is relatively high,but the digital divide between regions is weakening with the spillover effect.(2)The indirect carbon emission level per capita of residents in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is basically the same as the national average,while the indirect carbon emission level of urban residents is slightly higher than the national average,about 2.0-2.5 times of the indirect carbon emission of rural residents.The indirect carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yellow River are generally higher than the overall level in the lower reaches,and the indirect carbon emissions in provincial capitals and cities with better economic development levels are higher than those in other cities.The H-H agglomeration of per capita indirect carbon emissions is mainly located in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and from 2007 to 2012,the L-L agglomeration is mainly distributed in the southeastern part of Henan Province and the southwestern part of Shandong Province,but only a few cities in southwestern Shandong Province have lower per capita indirect carbon emissions by 2017.(3)The indirect carbon emissions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River municipalities are still dominated by physiological needs,and the indirect carbon emissions per capita in different need levels have the characteristics of physiological needs > social needs/self-actualization >security needs,and the growth rate of carbon emissions decreases with the increase of need levels.The gap between urban and rural residents’ indirect carbon emissions of physiological needs is increasing,while the gap between indirect carbon emissions of other needs is decreasing.In terms of spatial agglomeration characteristics,the spatial correlation of physiological demand-indirect carbon emissions keeps decreasing,and self-fulfilling indirect carbon emissions are more easily influenced by the homogeneity of neighboring cities.(4)The influence of ICT development level on indirect carbon emissions has spatial spillover effect and heterogeneous characteristics;the increase of ICT development level will increase the indirect carbon emissions of residents in the city,and it can influence the indirect carbon emissions of residents through spatial spillover effect.Under the development model of regional proximity clustering,the level of ICT development in neighboring cities has a suppressive effect on the city’s per capita indirect carbon,but the spatial spillover effect is not significant.Under the regional integrated development model,the level of ICT development in neighboring cities has a significant contribution to the city’s per capita indirect carbon.In terms of urban-rural heterogeneity,the positive effect of ICT development level on urban per capita indirect carbon emissions is greater than that on rural areas.In terms of different levels of demand,the impact of ICT development level on indirect carbon emissions increases with the level of demand.(5)ICT development level can increase per capita indirect carbon emissions by stimulating consumption level increase and adjusting consumption structure.At 95% confidence interval,the test results of the two mediating variables of consumption level and consumption structure do not include 0,and the mediating effects are 0.599 and 0.581,respectively.The transformation of consumption from“physiological needs” to “self-fulfillment needs” ultimately leads to an increase in indirect carbon emissions.This study explores the impact of the change in consumption patterns on indirect carbon emissions in the digital context based on the demand level,focusing on the impact of ICT development on indirect carbon emissions spatial spillover benefits,consumption heterogeneity and the mediating effect of consumption structure upgrading.The research results can provide a scientific basis for guiding carbon emission reduction in a hierarchical and categorical manner,and can also provide some theoretical support for the path and mechanism of ICT development level influencing sustainable consumption.