Research On The Measurement And Structural Decomposition Of Implicit Carbon Transfer In RCEP Regional Trad

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is an agreement initiated by ASEAN in 2012 and jointly developed by 15 participating countries,including China,Japan,South Korea,Australia,New Zealand,and the ten ASEAN countries.As the largest free trade zone in terms of population,economic and trade scale,and the highest requirements for transformation globally,RCEP brings lower tariffs and more open markets to its member countries.However,the huge trade volume has also raised significant hidden carbon flow issues that cannot be ignored.Against the backdrop of increasingly severe global economic globalization and climate issues,studying the hidden carbon flow in trade activities from a regional perspective is not only an important means of offering suggestions for coordinated regional development but also a necessary requirement for solving global climate problems.This paper examines the hidden carbon flows between 15 countries in the RCEP region in 2012 and 2016,using a multi-regional input-output model,structural decomposition analysis,and structural path analysis based on a review of relevant domestic and foreign research literature.The study analyzes the twelve driving factors of traderelated carbon emissions changes among the 15 countries in the region from three perspectives: traditional decomposition,industry association,and final demand.In the structural path analysis,30 pathways each for the largest emissions increase and decrease contributions to trade-related carbon emissions changes in each RCEP country were selected as key paths,depicting the complete path of trade-related carbon emissions changes in RCEP countries and identifying key industrial sectors.The main research conclusions of this paper include: firstly,China and Malaysia are the major net importers of embodied carbon in the region,while Japan and Singapore are the major net exporters.During the study period,China’s net export embodied carbon decreased by 58.37% within the region,while Japan and Singapore’s net import embodied carbon decreased by 70.65% and 50.04%,respectively.Secondly,the main driving factors of changes in export embodied carbon among RCEP countries include carbon emission intensity effect,domestic industry linkage effect,forward industry linkage effect,and various final demand effects.During the study period,China,South Korea,Vietnam,and other countries made significant contributions to emissions reduction through carbon emission intensity and domestic industry linkage effects.Forward industry linkage effects mainly promoted a reduction in trade embodied carbon in Japan,Malaysia,and Indonesia.The effect of the structure of final demand sources shows that China,Vietnam,South Korea,and other countries increased their market share of exported products,while countries outside the RCEP region decreased their demand for high-carbon emission products from within the region.More high-carbon emission products are exported by countries within the RCEP region to other countries within the region.Thirdly,there are significant differences in the upstream production industries and downstream final demand countries involved in each country’s key pathways,which are determined by each country’s resource endowment and technological advantages.For example,Australia’s key upstream pathways are mostly in the resource extraction industry,while the downstream final demand countries are mainly in China.Based on the research findings of this article,the following policy recommendations are proposed to promote coordinated regional development and emissions reduction work:First,deepen regional learning cooperation and experience sharing to achieve technological innovation and industrial upgrading.Second,leverage the resource endowments and technological advantages of various countries to develop characteristic industries,strengthen production cooperation,and achieve trade complementarity.Third,develop emission reduction strategies for specific industry chains and adopt comprehensive upstream and downstream management measures to reduce carbon emissions in the production process.