Research On The Emission Reduction Effect Of Carbon Emissions Trading Under The Dual Carbon Targets

The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to accelerate the green transformation of development methods,promote the formation of green and low-carbon production and lifestyle,and achieve high-quality economic development.Carbon emissions trading is an important policy tool for utilizing market mechanisms and promoting carbon reduction.Since 2013,China’s carbon emissions trading has been launched in pilot areas in Shenzhen,Shanghai,Beijing,Guangdong,Tianjin,Hubei,and Chongqing,with enterprises characterized by high energy consumption,high emissions,and high pollution as the key trading entities.In September 2020,China proposed "carbon peak by 2030,carbon neutrality by 2060"(referred to as " dual carbon targets "),and the national carbon emissions trading market will be launched in 2021.Studying the emission reduction effects of carbon emissions trading during the pilot period is of great significance for the sustained development of the national carbon emissions trading market and the achievement of the dual carbon goals.This article takes the carbon emissions trading pilot as a quasi natural experiment,takes enterprises as the research object,and takes the effective role of the national carbon emissions trading market under the dual carbon background as the guidance.The main research questions are: whether China’s carbon emissions trading can effectively reduce corporate carbon emissions;Can carbon emissions trading achieve carbon reduction and help achieve the dual carbon goals through the transmission channel of green total factor productivity.The specific content of this article includes:(1)summarizing and sorting out relevant literature on carbon emissions trading,and exploring new research space.(2)Based on the theories of public goods,externality and carbon locking,this paper analyzes the emission reduction mechanism of carbon emissions trading.(3)Using a multi-period double difference model to empirically analyze whether carbon emissions trading can reduce carbon emissions and test industry heterogeneity.Green total factor productivity is the most effective comprehensive indicator for measuring high-quality economic development in the new era.The multi-period double difference model is used to empirically analyze whether carbon emissions trading can improve green total factor productivity,and to analyze the mediating role of green total factor productivity.(4)Based on empirical results,suggestions and research prospects are proposed to improve the construction of the national carbon emissions trading market.Research conclusions:(1)Carbon emissions trading significantly reduces carbon emissions.The scale,operating capacity,and leverage level of enterprises are all positively correlated with their carbon emissions.There is a significant positive correlation between the industrial structure of the region where the enterprise is located and its carbon emissions.There is a significant negative correlation between the economic development level of the region where the enterprise is located and the carbon emissions of the enterprise.There is a negative relationship between equity concentration ratio and carbon emissions,that is,the higher the equity concentration ratio,the more conducive to reducing carbon emissions,which means that shareholders with a high proportion of shares tend to actively take measures to promote emission reduction by performing social responsibilities or actively complying with environmental protection standards.(2)Carbon emissions trading significantly improves green total factor productivity,and there is a negative relationship between the development capacity of enterprises and green total factor productivity.That is,the higher the development capacity of enterprises,the lower the green total factor productivity.This indicates that in the process of rapid development,enterprises attach more importance to profit maximization and tend to overlook environmental protection,leading to an increase in unexpected output.(3)Carbon emissions trading can significantly reduce carbon emissions from coal mining and washing industries,electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries,as well as petroleum processing,coking,and nuclear fuel processing industries.Carbon emissions trading significantly reduces carbon emissions from metal products,railway,shipbuilding,aerospace,and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries,as well as non-metallic mineral products.(4)Green total factor productivity plays a mediating role in the impact of carbon emissions trading on carbon emissions,and carbon emissions trading can promote emission reduction by improving green total factor productivity.Based on the issues discovered during the research process and research conclusions,suggestions are proposed from both the corporate and government levels to better leverage the role of national carbon emissions trading in the context of dual carbon emissions.At the corporate aspect:(1)Actively disclose carbon information.(2)Solve carbon accounting issues.(3)Improve production efficiency and promote emission reduction.At the government aspect:(1)Guide and encourage green development of enterprises.(2)Improve relevant regulations.(3)Expand the scope of industry access,accelerate the speed of industry access,and plan the order of industry inclusion.