Research On Carbon Emission Reduction Potential And Decoupling Effect Of Transportation

Reducing carbon emissions from transportation and balancing the development of the transportation industry with energy consumption,environmental change,and economic growth are the only way for China to achieve the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.On this basis,study the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions,and conduct simulation of transportation carbon emission reduction potential and decoupling effect research,which can provide targeted carbon emission reduction recommendations.This article took transportation carbon emissions as the main research object.After doing a good job in literature review and theoretical basis research,it sorted out the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions.Based on this,a spatial econometric model was established based on panel data from 29 provinces,cities,and autonomous regions from 2011 to 2019.After testing the three models of SDM,SAR,and SEM,the most effective SAR was used to identify the significant influencing factors and degrees of carbon emissions from transportation.On this basis,a system dynamics model was used to simulate the energy consumption and carbon emissions data of transportation from 2011 to 2060.After all tests are good,set up baseline scenarios,single scenario simulations,and combined scenario simulations.Obtain the scenario results with the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction in transportation.Based on this,the Tapio decoupling model was used to measure the decoupling effect of provincial and national transportation carbon emissions and economic growth.The results show that regional transportation carbon emissions have significant agglomeration and spillover effects.The factors in the carbon emission reduction path that have a significant comprehensive inhibitory effect on transportation carbon emissions are ranked as follows: non fossil energy consumption ratio>R&D investment>carbon sink>railway and waterway transportation turnover ratio>transportation personnel labor productivity.The ranking of factors with significant comprehensive promotion effect is: per capita GDP>civil vehicle ownership.Increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in road transport,reducing the unit energy consumption of gasoline and diesel vehicles in road transport,increasing the sharing rate of railway transportation,and improving the production efficiency of transport workers can maximize the carbon emission reduction potential of transportation.From a provincial perspective,the decoupling status of China’s transportation carbon emissions and economic growth is mainly characterized by weak decoupling,strong decoupling,growth connection,and expansion negative decoupling.From a national perspective,China’s transportation carbon emissions and economic growth generally showed a fluctuation trend of "growth connection-weak decoupling-strong decoupling" between 2011-2060.The spatial econometric model constructed in this study can identify the significant factors affecting carbon emissions in transportation.The established system dynamics model can enrich the methodology system of carbon emission reduction potential simulation and route identification of transportation.The results of the decoupling effect research can provide a theoretical basis for achieving the dual carbon goals of transportation in 2030 and 2060 in the future,and can also provide strong support for relevant departments to make decisions.