Research On Emission Reduction Strategies For Transportation Industry In The Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,climate change has become a topic of widespread concern for human society,and the international community generally believes that carbon dioxide is the main factor causing global warming.Since the release of the global climate agreement "Paris Agreement",countries around the world have successively introduced a series of emission reduction policies.China also proposed the "dual carbon" strategic goal in 2020,clarifying the main tone of future socio-economic development.The transportation industry is the foundation of economic development,with its own characteristics of high energy consumption and high emissions.Studying how to do a good job in energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation industry is of great significance for achieving green and sustainable development in China.As a major strategy for China’s economic development,the Yangtze River Economic Belt,relying on the golden waterway of the Yangtze River,has great potential in energy conservation and emission reduction in transportation.Therefore,this article takes the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object and explores its effective emission reduction measures.The specific content is as follows:Firstly,this article clarifies the current research status of the transportation industry in terms of carbon emission measurement,influencing factors of carbon emissions,and emission reduction pathways through literature review.On this basis,statistical analysis was conducted on the current situation of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the transportation industry in recent years were calculated.The index decomposition method was used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions.The research results show that in terms of transportation scale,the converted turnover of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is growing rapidly,and its proportion in the national transportation industry is constantly increasing.In terms of transportation structure,the proportion of railway passenger transportation and waterway freight transportation is also increasing year by year.In terms of energy structure,the energy consumption of the transportation industry is still dominated by fossil fuels,with diesel accounting for the highest proportion,accounting for approximately40.09% of the total energy consumption in 2020.In terms of influencing factors of carbon emissions,per capita GDP plays a promoting role in transportation carbon emissions,and the impact effect is the most obvious.Secondly,based on the analysis of influencing factors,a simulation model of transportation carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is established using system dynamics theory.This article divides the transportation carbon emissions system into three subsystems: social and economic,transportation,transportation energy consumption,and carbon emissions.By analyzing the causal feedback relationships within each subsystem,a stock flow chart of the simulation system is established.Subsequently,referring to the statistical data of various provinces and cities,regression analysis and mathematical derivation were used to determine the parameters and relationship equations of each variable.Finally,the correctness,effectiveness,and actual consistency of the model are tested,and the model structure and parameters are continuously adjusted until they pass the test.Finally,using scenario analysis method,14 emission reduction scenarios were set up to compare and analyze the emission reduction effects of the transportation industry,providing a theoretical basis for the formulation of emission reduction policies.This article conducts simulation simulations from three levels: structural,technical,and managerial.The simulation results show that increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and reducing the proportion of the secondary industry has the best emission reduction effect on the transportation industry.Secondly,optimizing the transportation structure and increasing the proportion of waterway transportation freight can also achieve good emission reduction effects.In terms of energy structure,in the long run,there is still great development space for clean energy in the transportation industry.Accelerating the application of clean energy in transportation vehicles is conducive to sustainable development of transportation.