Research On Safety Risk Assessment Of Transmission Line Construction Based On Structural Equation Model And Cloud Model

As the rapid development of economy and power demand in China,more and more transmission line engineering projects have been put into construction.Due to the complex structure,high liquidity and long construction period of the transmission line project,to control the safety risk of transmission line construction more effectively and reduce the incidence of accidents,it is of great significance to adopt scientific and systematic safety evaluation methods to analyze and control project risks.Firstly,the transmission line construction process,construction technology and safety accidents over the years were summarized and classified by referring to relevant literature and information,and the current commonly used risk identification and risk evaluation methods were compared and analyzed to clarify strengths and weaknesses of various methods and the scope of application.Finally,WBS-RBS was selected as the risk identification method in this paper,structural equation model was weighted,and cloud model was used as the evaluation method.Secondly,the WBS-RBS matrix was constructed according to the task decomposition from the whole project to the partial project coupled with the risk influencing factors based on the "4M1E" principle.Through 0-1 calibration of the matrix,combined with the results of HAZOP,JHA,FMEA and other identification methods adopted at the construction site,the risk identification list was obtained after combing and integrating.Subsequently,through questionnaire survey,22 risk factors were screened out based on the coefficient of variation,independence value and sensitivity value of risk factors,and an evaluation index system of transmission line construction safety risk was constructed.Finally,the structural equation model was used to determine the weight of indicators.Through Likert five-level scoring method,SPSS software was used to test the reliability and calibration of the 22 risk indicators.After the data were qualified,Amos software was used to build structural equation model for model fitting and fitness-test parameters.The weight of each risk parameter was determined by the path coefficient of the secondorder structural equation model.Then,the weight of the index was integrated with the cloud model,the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of each risk level were calculated by using the formula,and the software MATLAB R2018 a was applied to input the forward cloud generator code,so as to obtain the standard cloud image of the project and the cloud droplet diagram of all levels of indicators.By comparing the two figures,the safety risk of transmission line construction is comprehensively evaluated.A typical case study from the construction project of the Jinniushan 110 k V substation in Huangmei County is presented in this paper for evaluation and analysis.The final results showed that the construction safety risk level of Jinniushan power grid in Huangmei County is II,and the overall safety status of the project is good,and it is in a safe and controllable state.By comparison,the evaluation results of this paper are basically consistent with the actual safety situation of Jinniushan Railway project in Huangmei County,which indicates that the index system constructed in this study is reasonable,targeted and feasible.Moreover,the applicability,objectivity and reliability of the evaluation model are further verified through horizontal and vertical analysis of the evaluation model effect.However,in order to ensure the safety of personnel,improve the level of safety management and increase the benefit of project construction,based on the line project risk evaluation results of Jinniushan 110 k V substation in Huangmei County,the unsatisfactory factors that have a great impact on the evaluation results in this paper are analyzed and selected,such as: the skill level of construction personnel,maintenance and overhaul of construction equipment,emergency management of safety accidents,safety education and training of construction site,accuracy of survey and design,safety technology of erection construction,weather conditions during construction,etc.and provide specific control measures.