Risk Assessment Method For Chemical Industry Accident Consequences And Human Vulnerability In Urban Areas

The rapid industrial development process is accompanied by a wide range and types of hazardous sources,which may not only cause serious environmental pollution but also bring catastrophic effects to local densely populated areas in the event of an accident.In order to effectively prevent the serious consequences that accidents may have on sensitive areas,it is necessary to prompt governmental departments to plan the land rationally and to conduct risk assessments of different areas to understand their risk levels.The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive risk assessment procedure that considers the consequences of industrial accidents and local human vulnerability,and apply it to a town for a case study,aiming to resolve the contradictions that constrain industrial development and town safety,and to provide strong technical support for achieving win-win economic development and safety in towns.Based on this,this study firstly takes the common accident types and characteristics of town hazards as the entry point,determines the injury guidelines for fire,explosion and poisoning accidents,simulates the possible hazard footprints of regional hazards through ALOHA modeling software,and superimposes the hazard footprints on satellite maps using Arc GIS mapping software to achieve visual representation of accident consequences.Secondly,from the connotation of human vulnerability,we extend and optimize the human vulnerability evaluation indexes and develop the quantification method of each index by mining the characteristics of the population in urban areas,and construct the human vulnerability evaluation index system,and realize the calculation and classification of human vulnerability in different areas according to the evaluation index system.Finally,based on the results of accident consequence simulation and human vulnerability evaluation,a risk assessment matrix is established to evaluate the comprehensive risk of the town area,and Arc GIS mapping software is used to overlay the accident consequence map and human vulnerability map to realize the comprehensive risk visualization.An example study was conducted with a town in Tianjin.The results of the study show that the human vulnerability index system combined with the regional characteristics and the overlay of possible accident ranges makes the calculation of regional integrated risk more scientific;the integrated risk characterization based on Arc GIS platform makes the risk assessment results more concrete,which is convenient for town managers to understand the risk status of the town intuitively.The regional risk assessment method can be used to evaluate the current land use,make suggestions for future land planning,transportation route improvement,and medical service configuration,and provide a new perspective for emergency plan design and emergency material input.