Analysis Of CO₂ Emissions In Key Industries In Sichuan And Prediction Of Future Trends

When attending the World Economic Forum’s "Davos Agenda" and "Leaders’ Climate Summit",the "dual carbon" goals were also mentioned multiple times,it fully reflects China’s determination to achieve low-carbon development.As a major economic and resource province in southwestern China,Sichuan Province has experienced rapid economic development while also experiencing a rapid increase in carbon emissions from production and daily life.In order to develop a low-carbon economy in Sichuan Province,the characteristics and future trends of carbon emissions in Sichuan Province in the past 12 years have been studied.The analysis results have guiding significance for the implementation of subsequent carbon emission reduction work.Based on the research on carbon emissions at home and abroad,this paper takes Sichuan Province as the research object,calculates carbon emissions in key areas such as major energy consumption,industrial product production process,and agricultural activities in Sichuan Province from 2009 to 2020,analyzes the carbon emission characteristics in the past 12 years,and then uses STAPPAT model and scenario analysis method to predict Sichuan’s carbon emissions in the next 15 years,and puts forward relevant suggestions suitable for carbon emission reduction in Sichuan Province.Through systematic research,the main findings are as follows:(1)The total carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Sichuan from 257.2358 million tons in 2009 to 272.6865 million tons in 2020,the growth rate in twelve years is only 6%,2009～2014,carbon emissions rise year by year,reaching the highest value of299.4046 million tons in 2014,since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan",Sichuan Province adheres to the concept of green and low-carbon development,while improving the benefits of economic development,pay close attention to the quality of development,vigorously promote energy conservation and consumption reduction,2015～ In 2018,carbon emissions from key industries showed a downward trend,and in 2019 they rebounded,but there was little change and the overall trend was stable.(2)Sichuan’s carbon dioxide emissions mainly come from energy consumption and industrial product production processes.In 2009～2020,carbon emissions from energy consumption accounted for 41.80%～56.38% of total carbon emissions,and carbon emissions in the production of industrial products accounted for 34.16%～49.52% of total carbon emissions.In terms of energy consumption,coal(raw coal,coal,coke)consumption accounted for the largest proportion of carbon emissions,reaching more than70%～90% in 2009～2020,coal consumption was mainly concentrated in the industrial sector,and industrial coal consumption in Sichuan Province accounted for more than 93%from 2009 to 2020.Carbon emissions from the production of industrial products mainly come from the production of cement,steel and other products.(3)The STAPPAT model was used to identify and study the driving factors of energy consumption carbon emissions,and it was found that the influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in Sichuan Province in 2009～2020 were as follows: coal consumption proportion,secondary industry proportion,per capita GDP,population size,and energy intensity in descending order.(4)According to the regression equation fitted by the STIRPAT model,combined with the scenario analysis method,the changes of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Sichuan Province were predicted under different scenario modes.According to the development plan and related policies,the future carbon emissions of industrial production processes and agricultural activities are predicted,and the results show that under the assumption of different development models,the predicted future carbon emissions of key industries in Sichuan will remain stable in the range of245.5971～263.7326 million tons.(5)Based on the quantitative research on carbon emissions in this paper,relevant suggestions are put forward for the future carbon emission of Sichuan Province to maintain the trend of "stable and decreasing" : including promoting the use of electricity instead of coal to reduce carbon emissions,encouraging the low-carbon development of clean production,and controlling agricultural production and emission reduction at the source.