Study On Timing Change Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And Carbon Reduction In Baicheng

In recent years, the global warming caused by human activities has become the focus of academia and governments at home and abroad. The most important reason is the excessive use and development of resources and energy, which causes the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and so on. As a basic industry and with its rapid development, agriculture has resulted in the substantial increase of greenhouse gases, whose emission accounts for the second in the world’s total emissions, preceded only by electric production. Based on the basic data from Statistical Yearbook of Baicheng, this study adopts classic IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, focuses on the status of agricultural development in the region, identifies specific carbon emission factors and corresponding carbon emission coefficient from the three aspects of overall agricultural material inputs, rice cultivation and livestock breeding, calculates the agricultural carbon emission in Baicheng, and analyzes its dynamic process of changes; based on the analysis model of nonlinear multivariable STIRPAT, it analyzes the affecting factors of agricultural carbon emission in Baicheng; based on the comparative research of natural growth of grey prediction and carbon constraint of low-carbon development, it analyzes the potential of agricultural carbon reduction in Baicheng and proposes countermeasures. The results show the following:(1) The timing variation of agricultural carbon emission in Baicheng was divided into three phases: slow-growth phase �' rapid-growth phase �' fluctuation phase, showing a continuous growth. The carbon emission increased from 2365544 tons in 1999 to 4446167 tons in 2013, the annual growth rate being 6.28%. The agricultural carbon emission intensity first went up and then down, with the maximum 61921 t/hm2 in 2008.(2) The rate of agricultural material inputs in Baicheng was basically the same as the variation and growth rate of carbon emission caused by rice cultivation. Fertilizer, rice cultivation, cattle breeding and sheep breeding take up a large proportion among agricultural material inputs, the first two being the comparatively active growth factors. The carbon emission from fertilizer and rice cultivation showed a sharp increase in a straight line from 2003 to 2013, the latter factor causing more rapid increase. Rice cultivation was the most active factor in agricultural carbon emission of Baicheng, carbon emission being in the same proportion to the amount of fertilizer in 2012. The carbon emission in Zhenlai County was 1305941 tons, spatially being the largest with the proportion of 30.04%. Carbon emission from agricultural material inputs in Taonan County was biggest, being the most with the proportion of 30.04%; Carbon emission from rice cultivation in Zhenlai County was 693202 tons, being the most with the proportion of 48.60%; Carbon emission from livestock breeding in Zhenlai County was174911 tons, being the second most with the proportion of 25.36%;(3) The agricultural carbon emission, its intensity and the EKC of GDP in Baicheng showed quadratic and cubic curve respectively, being in line with the inverted “U” shape from the classic EKC hypothesis. The turning points appeared in 2008 and 2012 respectively, and then showed a downward state with the growth its economy.(4) The factor-influencing model of nonlinear multivariate STIRPAT was constructed. The influence index elasticity coefficient of population, constant price GDP, total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural yield ratio, rural investment, urbanization and the rural per capita net income was respectively 0.2605, 0.0874, 0.1126,-0.0766, 0.0353, 0.2083 and 0.1128. Among them, population, urbanization and total power of agricultural machinery were main factors of agriculture carbon emissions in Baicheng.(5) The prediction of agricultural carbon emission in 2014-2020 under baseline scenario was made through grey prediction model GM(1, 1). It showed that the agricultural carbon emission and its intensity in 2020 would increase respectively to 6244876 tons and 4.8557 t/hm2 under the condition of natural growth. However, in response to national policy and in the context of carbon emission constraints, the agricultural carbon emission and its intensity in 2020 would be reduced respectively to 3853739 tons and 2.9965 t/hm2, carbon reduction being 2391137 tons and reduction ratio reaching 50%. The grand total reduction would be 8956889 tons in 2014-2020.Baicheng is a typical agro-based prefecture-level city. It has greatly improved S&T inputs and industry development in the agricultural sector. The constant increase of agricultural material inputs, agricultural fossil fuels, land area of rice and other relevant factors has brought to its agricultural development carbon emission issue which cannot be ignored as well as great impetus since the beginning of 21 st century. The future potential of its agricultural carbon reduction is huge, but it has a long way to go. To effectively achieve low-carbon development of agriculture, it will have to control carbon emission, reduce carbon emission intensity and take appropriate strategies the in the following five aspects:(1) To perfect the management system and optimize the policy environment;(2) To develop agricultural emission reduction technology and adjust the structure of agricultural development;(3) To develop green energy and construct agricultural circular economy;(4) To protect strictly the arable land and optimize land use pattern;(5) To make overall plans and take all-round considerations, advocate low-carbon concept, and create a good social atmosphere.