Risk Assessment Of Urban Rail Transit Operation In Beijing Based On Catastrophe Theory

In order to solve urban traffic congestion,environmental pollution and other related problems,cities across the country have set off a climax in the construction of urban rail transit.However,the urban rail transit system will cause serious consequences once a safety accident occurs due to its closed space,fast operation,large passenger flow,difficult evacuation and other characteristics.Therefore,conducting research on the operational safety of urban rail transit,analyzing the interrelationships between risk factors,accurately evaluating the operational safety of urban rail transit,and implementing effective pre control measures has become a major issue in the current operational safety of urban rail transit.This article combines the current situation of urban rail transit operation safety in Beijing,starting from accident cases,analyzes the influencing factors that lead to different safety accidents,establishes a Beijing urban rail transit operation safety evaluation system based on mutation theory,and uses simulation software to analyze the impact of different influencing factors on the overall operational safety level of Beijing,thereby providing new ideas and methods for urban rail transit safety evaluation.The main research content is as follows:Firstly,the concept of urban rail transit operation was introduced,and a total of 1295 urban rail transit accident cases from 2011 to 2020 were statistically analyzed in Beijing.The system was divided according to the time,space,and type of accidents;Based on the theory of accident causation,analyze the factors affecting the safety of Beijing’s urban rail transit operation,construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for Beijing’s urban rail transit operation safety,and use the combination weighting method to calculate and rank the weight and importance of the safety evaluation system indicators.Secondly,the mutation theory is introduced and combined with indicator weights to construct a Beijing urban rail transit operation safety evaluation index system based on the mutation theory.Based on the operational accidents from 2011 to 2020,the catastrophe progression method is used to calculate the annual safety evaluation values and quantitatively analyze and compare them.According to the catastrophe theory,the safety status areas of Beijing’s urban rail transit are divided for qualitative analysis.Research has shown that in the past decade,the safety level of urban rail transit operations in Beijing has gradually improved,the safety level has changed,and the safety status has not changed,which is consistent with the actual operating conditions of Beijing.Finally,in order to study the impact of different influencing factors on the safety level of Beijing’s rail transit,Vensim PLE software was used to simulate and analyze operational safety.By establishing a system dynamics model of Beijing’s urban rail transit operational safety level,the impact of changes in a single indicator factor on the safety level of urban rail transit was analyzed.The results indicate that among the secondary indicators,the safety level of facilities and equipment factors is the lowest;Among the three-level indicators,the change in the safety status of the communication signal system has the greatest impact on the safety of urban rail transit.Based on this,specific safety management measures are proposed for various influencing factors based on the current situation of Beijing,effectively improving the overall safety of Beijing’s rail transit operation.