Risk Assessment Of China’s Natural Gas Import Sources From The Perspective Of The Belt And Road Initiative

The natural gas imports in our country have been increasing year by year.However,risks from the source countries of natural gas imports and during the transportation process have the potential to interrupt the importation and impact the stability and reliability of our country’s natural gas supply.The "Belt and Road" initiative has promoted energy cooperation between our country and many countries along its route,fostering a favorable environment for political,economic,and energy development.However,it is important to acknowledge that countries along the "Belt and Road" also face certain risks in terms of their own resource endowment,economic and political situations,and geopolitical factors.Furthermore,with the eruption of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the international natural gas trade has witnessed a new situation of alliance-based supply.This new landscape necessitates a continued deepening of natural gas cooperation partnerships.These considerations are addressed in this thesis to examine the risks and challenges associated with natural gas imports.It is imperative to recognize the significance of enhancing collaboration in the natural gas sector,particularly in light of these evolving circumstances.Therefore,considering the influence of the international political situation and the "Belt and Road" initiative on the risks associated with China’s natural gas imports,this thesis applies risk management theory and oil and gas geopolitics theory.It analyzes and identifies natural gas-related import risk factors from various aspects such as resources,politics,economics,and transportation.By considering both liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas sources,and incorporating the "Belt and Road" factor,a dynamic treatment of geopolitical frictions is introduced using the concept of friction.The thesis establishes a risk assessment index system for China’s natural gas import sources under the "Belt and Road" framework.It utilizes the projection pursuit algorithm to build a model and employs the accelerated genetic algorithm for solving.A comprehensive assessment of source-related risks for major liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas imports in China is conducted.Finally,a clustering algorithm is used to classify different levels of import-risk countries.The research findings are detailed as follows:(1)In general,the import risks of Malaysia,Russia,Qatar,Indonesia,and other countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative are low,and these countries have a significant impact on China’s natural gas import risk due to their large import volumes.(2)"Belt and Road" initiative indicators such as facility connectivity,trade connectivity,and financial integration,as well as non-"Belt and Road" indicators such as geopolitical friction,fleet quantity,and infrastructure construction,are the most significant risk factors affecting China’s natural gas import sources.(3)In the event of a geopolitical conflict,countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative,such as Russia,Malaysia,Indonesia,Qatar,and Kazakhstan,have low import risk levels.These countries with low import risk levels will have a significant impact on China’s natural gas import security in the event of a geopolitical conflict.(4)In the event of a geopolitical conflict,medium-to long-term natural gas import agreements,trade connectivity,people-to-people ties,and geopolitical friction are the most significant risk factors affecting China’s natural gas import sources.Based on the findings of this thesis,strategic recommendations are provided to mitigate the risks associated with natural gas imports in China,focusing on both the source countries and risk dimensions.These recommendations include: further deepening the construction of energy cooperation partnerships with countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative,and assisting in the development of energy infrastructure in these countries.Conducting a risk assessment of the source countries for natural gas imports in China,in conjunction with the "Belt and Road" initiative,holds significant practical significance as it provides valuable insights for scientifically selecting import sources and mitigating import risks.Additionally,it serves as a theoretical foundation for deepening energy cooperation along the "Belt and Road" initiative in various domains,expanding upon the theories of the "Belt and Road" initiative and oil and gas geopolitics,thereby contributing to the theoretical advancements in this field.