Research On Demand Forecast Of Senior Caregivers In Medical And Nursing Care Institutions In Guangxi Based On Combination Forecasting Model

Objective: The combination prediction model makes reasonable prediction on the number of senior caregivers in Guangxi medical and nursing care institutions,combines the current situation of senior caregivers allocation in Guangxi medical and nursing care institutions,makes suggestions for the situation of insufficient senior caregivers allocation,and provides reference basis for relevant departments to increase the amount of senior caregivers allocation and improve the quality of elderly services in Guangxi medical and nursing care institutions.Methods: Markov model was used to calculate the probability of health state transfer for the seniors aged 65 and above;the number of elderly population aged 65 and above in Guangxi in 2030 was predicted by the gray model GM(1,1)and LSTM long and short-term memory neural network model constituting GM-LSTM model;the health manpower/population ratio method was used to estimate the demand for senior caregivers in medical and nursing care institutions in Guangxi in 2030.The whole-group random sampling method was adopted to conduct questionnaire surveys on 17 Guangxi medical and nursing care institutions and their 619 senior caregivers.Results: 1.According to the Markov model,the probability of deterioration in the status of the elderly with healthy,mild disability,moderate disability,and severe disability in the age group of 65-74 years were 9.34%,12.28%,30.49%,and 27.21%,respectively;the probability of deterioration in the status of the elderly with healthy,mild disability,moderate disability,and severe disability in the age group of 75-84 years were 10.78%,24.29%,38.90%,and 32.55%;the probability that the elderly aged 85-94 years with healthy,mild disability,moderate disability,and severe disability had worse status was 24.78%,34.20%,55.34%,and 49.64%,respectively;the probability of healthy,mildly disability,moderately disability,and severely disability older adults with deteriorating status in the age group of 95 years and older was 37.99%,52.65%,69.88%,and 56.51%;the state dwell times of the elderly with healthy in different age groups were 8.45 years,8.19 years,3.34 years,2.03 years;the state dwell times of the elderly with mild disability were: 1.38 years,1.64 years,1.43 years,1.05 years;the state residence time of the elderly with moderate disability were: 0.81 years,0.75 years,0.88 years,0.43 years;the state residence time of the elderly with severe disability were:0.99 years,1.60 years,1.02 years,0.69 years;2.According to the prediction results of GM-LSTM model,the state residence time of the elderly aged 65 and above in Guangxi from 2023 to The predicted number of elderly population aged 65 and above in 2030 are: 7,044,840,000;7,377,998,000;7,705,027,000;8,127,935,000;8,413,220,000;8,659,738,000;8,936,709,000 and 9,184,205,000 respectively;the predicted size of the disabled elderly population in 2030 is 1.554342 million people,including1.074590 million people with mild disability,227.256 million people with moderate disability,and 252.496 million people with severe disability;3.According to the combined prediction model and health manpower/population ratio method,it is estimated that Guangxi medical and nursing care institutions need 6296 senior caregivers under the low standard program of Guangxi,and 11717 senior caregivers under the high standard program of Guangxi;12120 senior caregivers under the national standard program;4.According to the research results,there were 2952 elderly people staying in17 medical and nursing care institutions,of whom 301(10.20%)were healthy,495(16.77%)were mild disability,521(17.65%)were moderate disability and 1,645(55.72%)were severe disability;there were 619 senior caregivers in 17 combined medical and nursing care institutions.If the senior caregivers are allocated according to the national standard,17 combined medical and nursing care institutions need to allocate another 369 senior caregivers;according to Guangxi high standard configuration of senior caregivers,17 institutions need to allocate 441 senior caregivers.Conclusion(s): 1.According to the results of Markov model construction,the health status of the elderly in different age groups has the possibility of improvement,and the risk of deteriorating health status becomes higher with the increase of age,and the worse the initial health status,the worse the expected health status,and the higher the possibility of health status change once the elderly become incapacitated.In terms of the length of stay in each health state of the elderly,the elderly with intact ability have the longest stay in the same state,and the older they are,the shorter the stay in the same state,and they need to focus on the care of the disabled elderly.2.According to the prediction results of the gray model and LSTM long and short-term memory neural network model,the elderly population aged 65 and above in Guangxi is growing,and the size of the elderly disabled population continues to expand.3.According to the comparison between the demand for senior caregivers predicted by the model and the field research results,the problem of shortage of senior caregivers is obvious,the demand for senior caregivers by the disabled elderly is large,and the severe disability elderly account for a high proportion of the elderly group staying in medical and nursing care institutions,so it is necessary for medical and nursing care institutions to improve the construction of the elderly caregiver team and improve the service quality to meet the demand for elderly services of the disabled elderly.4.The research results show that the problem of insufficient allocation of senior caregivers in Guangxi combined medical and nursing care institutions is related to the high mobility of senior caregivers and the lack of job attractiveness.It is suggested that the local government of Guangxi should take reference to other regions in China,take encouraging measures to enhance the attractiveness of the positions of senior caregivers,and provide special subsidies for the positions of senior caregivers;encourage medical schools to open elderly care-related majors,increase the reserve of elderly care-related professionals,and improve the overall quality of the senior caregiver team.The social level increases the publicity of elderly care positions,enhances related social support,eliminates the prejudice of traditional social perceptions of elderly care workers,enhances the social and professional identity of elderly care workers,reduces the mobility of elderly care workers,and ensures relatively high service quality.