Research On Demand Forecasting Model Of Medical Staff In Zhejiang Province Based On Various Forecasting Methods

ObjectiveBy analyzing the current situation of medical staffing in Zhejiang Province and interpreting the relevant health manpower policies,the demand quantity of medical staffs in Zhejiang Province is forecasted by using the method of manpower/population ratio,health service target,time series and multiple linear regression.By comparing the residual of each forecasting method,a weighted combination forecasting model is established to forecast the demand quantity of medical staffs in Zhejiang Province.Then the weighted combination model was used to forecast the demand of doctors in various cities of Zhejiang Province.Through the comparison between the forecasting results and the relevant health personnel planning,the corresponding suggestions are put forward for the challenges and the future development.MethodsLiterature collection and research methods: relevant literatures were mainly searched through the general database of Chinese knowledge resources,Wanfang medical resource database,Weipu database,Web of science and other literature databases.Look for China’s health yearbook and main history annual China health statistics yearbook,combined with the zhejiang raw key points of family planning work of health issued by the health and family planning commission," twelfth five-year " " much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning outline" and other documents,to get to meet the need of predicting index.Data analysis method: Microsoft Office Excel 2007,Eviews software,SPSS20.0software were used to predict the demand of medical personnel and doctors in zhejiang province by human/population ratio method,health service target method,time series method,multiple linear regression method and weighted combination prediction model method.Results(1)The overall demand for medical personnel in Zhejiang province continues to grow,and the demand for doctors in different regions shows different growth rates.The demand for doctors in Zhejiang province will reach 195,899 in 2020 and 339,333 in 2030.In each region,Wenzhou,Quzhou and Taizhou have the largest growth rate in 2020,with the year-on-year growth rate reaching more than 25%.By 2030,Hangzhou,Wenzhou,Taizhou and Lishui will see a big increase,with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%.Jinhua city and Zhoushan city had the smaller increase.(2)There is a big gap in the demand for doctors between different cities.According to the predicted demand,the 11 cities can be divided into three groups.The first group includes Hangzhou and Wenzhou.The second group includes Ningbo and Taizhou,and the third group includes Jinhua,Jiaxing,Lishui,Shaoxing,Quzhou,Lishui and Zhoushan,among which Zhoushan has the lowest demand.(3)According to the predicted results,zhejiang province will have 3.27 doctors per 1,000 people in 2020,which is the same as the number of doctors per 1,000 people in Australia.There will be 4.0 registered nurses per 1,000 population,equivalent to the current rate of 4.55 in Albania and Kuwait,and 5.01 licensed doctors per 1,000 population by 2030,equivalent to the current rate in Switzerland.There are8.18 registered nurses per 1,000 population,which is the level of Austria and the Netherlands.All the indicators can meet the goals of the healthy China 2030 plan.In2020,the ratio of medical care can reach 1:1.21,which can meet the requirements of the health development planning outline of the 13 th five-year plan of zhejiang province,but it has not reached the 1:1.25 requirement of "healthy China 2030".There is a big gap between the number of nurses and other countries in the world,and the ratio of medical care cannot meet the requirements of the country.(4)Time series method and multiple linear regression model were used to predict the number of medical staff.The residual variance was 0.068 and 0.129,and the results obtained were of high accuracy.However,the prediction residual variance using the health service objective method is 8.171,and the prediction result is of lowaccuracy.The improved weighted combination prediction model integrates the advantages of all the prediction methods and integrates the effective information to the greatest extent,and the results are more scientific.(5)The relevant data of zhejiang province collected by different departments may present different situations.Moreover,due to the lack of comprehensiveness and comprehensiveness of collected data,the use of some prediction methods is limited.Conclusions(1)Strengthen the pertinence of regional health manpower allocation.For regions with large demand but small base,such as taizhou and lishui,the government should focus on increasing the number of health workers.The government should focus on improving the quality of health services in areas where the number of personnel is relatively large,but where the future demand growth is relatively small,such as ningbo,jinhua and shaoxing.And to demand bigger but itself cardinal number is bigger area,be like hangzhou,lukewarm city,the government should pay attention to not only wholesome service quality to also want to take wholesome personnel quantity supply seriously.(2)Strengthen the precision and directional training of health talents according to the predicted results.Strengthen the cooperation and connection between the health department and the education department,and make a scientific and reasonable mid-and-long term plan for talents according to the predicted results.To avoid unbalance between supply and demand of health talents,and to avoid blindness in medical enrollment through specialized and detailed prediction.(3)To further explore and promote the application of scientific health manpower prediction methods.As far as possible,the types,advantages and disadvantages of all the methods should be further understood.Appropriate prediction methods should be selected according to the type of prediction manpower and the length of prediction cycle,so as to provide valuable references and basis for future targeted health manpower planning through specialized health manpower prediction.(4)Standardized statistical data management lays the foundation for scientific manpower prediction.It is suggested that government departments should strengthen the management of statistical data,improve the timeliness,applicability and availability of data,and formulate unified content,scope and caliber standards for statistical data,so as to facilitate the future development of related human resource forecasting.