Study On Balance Of Income And Expenditure Of Basic Medical Insurance Fund For Urban Workers In Shanxi Province

The basic medical insurance system for urban workers was established in Shanxi Province in 1999 and has achieved good results since its operation.However,under the background of population aging and low pooling level,although there is no gap in fund revenue and expenditure at present,there are some problems in the operation,such as fast growth rate of fund expenditure,large variation range of fund balance rate and poor stability.The study on the balance of income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in Shanxi Province not only enriched the theoretical achievements in this research field,but also helped to solve the risks in the actual operation,which has both theoretical and practical significance.In this paper,the literature research method is used to sort out the situation related to the basic medical insurance system of urban employees from domestic and foreign literature,and after analyzing the literature,the innovation is made.Focusing on the new research object,from the perspective of the operation of Shanxi Province urban employees basic medical insurance system,clear the policy development process and specific implementation,is conducive to the realistic situation,the specific analysis of the existing problems,analyze the factors affecting the system fund balance to put forward the corresponding countermeasures.In the concrete empirical analysis,firstly,19 variables related to fund income and expenditure are selected according to the calculation formula,and the correlation analysis is used to analyze the significant relationship between these variables and the explained variables.Then,through the principal component analysis,the more influential factors are classified into several types of public factors as the most important influencing factors.In the principal component analysis of fund income,The principal component analysis mainly includes population factor,policy factor and economic factor.In the principal component analysis of fund expenditure,it mainly includes population factor,economic policy factor and medical factor.After the empirical study of the main influencing factors,the gray prediction GM(1,1)model is established to forecast the income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in Shanxi Province in the next ten years.The analysis shows that there will be a gap in 2031,which means there is a risk of fund income and expenditure imbalance in the future,and it is necessary to be vigilant and take active measures to avoid the risk.The analysis of the factors affecting the fund revenue and expenditure forecast is to put forward the countermeasures to achieve the fund balance.This paper mainly from improving the urban employee medical insurance fund income,deepening the reform of the medical system,strengthening the supervision of the urban employee medical insurance fund put forward the corresponding countermeasures.