Analysis And Prediction Of Influencing Factors On The Incidence Of Infectious Diseases In Shandong Province

Since ancient times,infectious diseases have been a major hidden danger to human life and health.So far,the control of infectious diseases is still a very important thing for all countries in the world.Infectious diseases mainly fall into three categories,namely class A infectious diseases,Class B infectious diseases and Class C infectious diseases,increasing in the order of infectivity and danger.In nature,a variety of possible factors will play a certain role in the occurrence of infectious diseases,and environmental factors are the most significant.Therefore,it is particularly important to conduct in-depth research on the relationship between them.In this paper,the incidence of four common infectious diseases(tuberculosis,viral hepatitis,hand,foot and mouth disease,influenza),concentration of atmospheric pollutants(SO2,NO2,PM10,PM2.5,O3,NO)and meteorological factors(average precipitation,average temperature,average sunshine duration)in Shandong Province in the past six years were selected.Grey correlation analysis was used to observe the correlation between the incidence of four infectious diseases and the influencing factors,and multiple regression model was established through principal component regression analysis to reveal the influence degree of environmental factors on the incidence of infectious diseases,and then find out the key factors causing the increase of the incidence of four infectious diseases.In addition,the optimal prediction model was selected to predict the number of four infectious diseases,and the future development trend of the four infectious diseases was obtained,thus providing the corresponding theoretical support and data basis for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases in Shandong Province.Main research results of this paper:(1)The number of cases of tuberculosis peaked in May each year and showed a trend of slow decline year by year.Six kinds of air pollutants and three kinds of meteorological factors had strong correlation with the number of tuberculosis cases,and all had positive influence on the number of tuberculosis cases.Average precipitation had the greatest influence on the number of tuberculosis cases,followed by NO2 concentration.Over the next few years,the number of cases of tuberculosis will continue to decrease slowly year by year.(2)The number of cases of viral hepatitis peaked in April each year,and showed a trend of slow rise year by year.Six atmospheric pollutants and three meteorological factors were strongly correlated with the number of cases of viral hepatitis.The concentration of NO2 and PM10 and three meteorological factors all had positive effects on the number of cases of viral hepatitis.The concentrations of SO2,PM2.5,O3 and CO all had negative effects on the incidence of viral hepatitis.Average precipitation had the greatest influence on the number of viral hepatitis,followed by NO2 concentration.In the next few years,the number of cases of viral hepatitis is not very big change range,generally in a small increase trend.(3)The incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease peaked in July every year,and the fluctuation range during 2020-2022 was much less than that during 2017-2019.Six atmospheric pollutants and three meteorological factors were strongly correlated with the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.The concentrations of SO2,NO2,PM10,O3 and CO,average precipitation and average temperature all had positive effects on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.PM2.5 and average sunshine duration had a negative effect on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease.The average temperature had the greatest influence on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease,followed by the average sunshine duration.In the next few years,the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease will show a stable trend of fluctuation.(4)The number of influenza cases peaked in December every year and fluctuated greatly from year to year.Six atmospheric pollutants and three meteorological factors were strongly correlated with the number of influenza cases.The concentration of NO2,PM2.5and average temperature had a positive effect on the number of influenza cases.The concentrations of SO2,PM10,O3,CO,average precipitation and average sunshine duration all had negative effects on the number of influenza cases.PM2.5 concentration has the greatest influence on the number of influenza cases,followed by PM10 concentration.In the next few years,there will be a slight increase in the number of influenza cases.