Grey System Gm(1,1) Model Based Information Reused And It's Application On Infectious Disease Trends Forecast

Objective: Epidemic infectious diseases which is one of the most important risk factors, are serious threating to human health and survival. Grey System Theory, particularly the GM(1,1) model has better results in forecasting the trends of epidemic infectious diseases. The traditional method of the establishment of GM(1,1) model has the advantage of easy calculating, but it has the drawbackness of unaccuracy fitting and prediction sometimes. The method based on information re-use take the solution and the boundary parameter value of the consolidated together to discuss, This technique of GM(1,1) model can not only improve the fitting and prediction accuracy greatly, but also reserve the advantage of calculate easily of traditional way. The study was designed to collect the incidences of epidemic diseases, and establish relevant GM(1,1) model based on information reused, then we can predict epidemic trends of infectious diseases. So as to establish an early warning system of epidemic of infectious diseases, which can provide the relevant departments a scientific basis for preventing and controling disease. Method: The research are including both establishment of the GM(1,1) model based on re-used information and the epidemic prediction two parts. First of all, First of all, using the Chinese macro data mining system, the Internet, China Health Statistics Yearbook, and the local epidemic prevention stations etc to gather a large number of epidemiological data on the incidence; Then following the gray system theory and methods establish GM(1,1) model; Finally, using the GM(1,1) model to predict the future trends of epidemic diseases.Result: This paper is used the method to forecast the epidemic trends of a lot of infectious diseases, such as Children's Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease influenza A H1N1 influenza, rabies, viral hepatitis, AIDS, epidemic hemorrhagic fever, syphilis, measles, found that the GM(1,1) model have a good prediction for these infectious diseases, shows this method can be used to forecast trends of infectious diseases.Conclusion: The GM(1,1) model established by the methods based on information re-use can not only improve the fitting and prediction accuracy greatly, but also reserve the advantage of calculate easily of traditional way, able to better predict trends in the incidence of epidemic diseases.