Research On COVID-19 Based On Houshold Model

COVID-19,as a global epidemic,affects economic and social development in many ways,it seriously affects people’s normal production life and poses a great threat to people’s lives and properties.Since there is no vaccine and targeted antiviral drugs at the beginning of the epidemic,isolation is one of the common interventions used worldwide to combat the epidemic.Therefore,for the COVID-19 outbreak,this thesis investigates the transmission dynamics of the new crown outbreak in the community based on the infectious disease family model.First,this thesis derives the family regeneration number by building a relaxation-type model in the context of community-based implementation of full nucleic acid testing for relaxation-type isolation measures,and conducts numerical simulations using the family regeneration number.The simulation results show that relaxed isolation is effective in controlling the spread of the new crown epidemic in the community,and the more people in the community comply with home isolation,the more effective relaxed isolation is in controlling the spread of the epidemic; if more symptomatic infected persons are diagnosed before their symptoms appear,then relaxed isolation is more effective in preventing the epidemic; delaying the identification of infected persons weakens the effectiveness of relaxed isolation in controlling the spread of the epidemic The longer the delay,the less effective it is in controlling the spread of the epidemic,so it is important to identify infected individuals as soon as their symptoms appear; if more infected individuals are identified in time,the spread of the new crown epidemic in the community can be better controlled.Secondly,considering the situation with sufficient health resources,this thesis investigates the situation of strictly controlled isolation measures under full nucleic acid testing in the community,finds the household regeneration number by building a strictly controlled model,and conducts numerical simulations using the household regeneration number.The simulation results showed that: strict-control isolation can effectively control the spread of the epidemic in the community,and the more asymptomatic infected persons were missed under strict-control isolation,the worse the epidemic control effect of strict-control isolation; under the same circumstances,strict-control isolation is more effective than relaxed isolation in controlling the spread of the epidemic in the community; the epidemic control effect of strict-control isolation varies with the proportion of asymptomatic infected persons When the infectiousness reduction factor of asymptomatic infected persons was small compared with that of symptomatic infected persons,the effect of strict-control isolation measures was better than that of relaxed isolation measures as the proportion of asymptomatic infected persons increased,and when the infectiousness reduction factor was large,the effect of strict-control isolation measures became worse as the proportion of asymptomatic infected persons increased.