Research On The Prevention And Control Strategy Of COVID-19 In Community Based On Household Model

The spread of COVID-19 is highly infectious and concealed,and has had a major impact on people’s lives around the world.As of March 3,2022,the COVID-19 pandemic has caused nearly 6 million deaths.The prevention and control of COVID-19 has become hot spots of society.To control the epidemic,many countries and regions have adopted non-drug interventions,such as voluntary nucleic acid testing,mandatory nucleic acid testing for those infected with symptoms,and mandatory quarantine of confirmed households.Household model is a theoretical epidemiological model that considers random factors,and is an important method to study epidemic prevention and control.According to the actual situation of COVID-19 prevention and control in the community,this thesis established household models for different epidemic prevention and control measures,and carried out numerical simulation and comparative analysis.It is first discussed the impact of relevant factors on voluntary nucleic acid testing with quarantine in the community.When this measure is implemented,all people in the community will undergo voluntary nucleic acid testing,and the confirmed patients and their households will be subject to mandatory quarantine.The results of numerical simulation show that the higher the proportion of voluntary nucleic acid testing,the better the effect of epidemic prevention and control? when the proportion of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients taking voluntary nucleic acid testing is the same and the nucleic acid testing starts at the same time,the proportion of symptomatic patients has no impact on epidemic prevention and control.Under other conditions being the same,the sooner voluntary nucleic acid testing is implemented,the more effectively the epidemic can be controlled.Then,the implementation of mandatory nucleic acid testing with tracking of quarantine measures is discussed.When implementing this measure,nucleic acid testing is required for all patients in the community with suspected symptoms.After all symptomatic patients have been diagnosed,contacts of confirmed infected persons will be tracked by the community,nucleic acid testing will be carried out on those contacts as soon as possible,and further contact tracing will be carried out on newly confirmed infected persons at the same time.The numertical simulation results show that,when implementing this measure,the earlier nucleic acid testing starts,the higher the proportion of asymptomatic patients covered by nucleic acid testing,or the higher the proportion of symptomatic infected persons,the better the epidemic prevention and control effect of this measure.Comparing voluntary nucleic acid testing with quarantine measures and mandatory nucleic acid testing with tracking of quarantine measures,if the proportion of symptomatic infections is high,and mandatory nucleic acid testing with tracking of quarantine measures can achieve a high proportion of nucleic acid testing for asymptomatic infection groups,implementing mandatory nucleic acid testing with tracking of quarantine in the community may achieve better epidemic prevention and control effects.