Analysis And Prediction Of The Level And Equity Of Health Resources Allocation In Different Regions Of China

Research backgroundWith a vast territory,the population,geographical area and economic level of all regions are different,and there is great difference in the allocation of health resources between regions.At present,although the national investment in the field of health has gradually increased,the level of health technology has been greatly improved,but compared with developed countries,there are still problems that the level of modernization of medical and health technology is not high,and the quality of medical and health services is not high.A number of challenges remain,such as the accelerated aging process,the increasing incidence of chronic diseases,the gradual refinement and diversification of people’s health needs and the gradual deterioration of the ecological environment.Research purposeThe allocation and development trend of health resources were analyzed and compared by using the overall health resources in each region and the health resources per thousand evaluation index in the study year.To analyze the state of health resources under the national classification standards.According to the situation of health resources allocation,the paper puts forward specific suggestions on health resources allocation.Lorentz curve of health resources was drawn and Gini coefficient was calculated.The fairness of health resource allocation and its development trend were discussed with Theil index.Based on the indirect and direct prediction of the late Gini coefficient of GM model,the Gini coefficient difference between the two prediction methods was compared.Based on the data obtained from various aspects,some suggestions are put forward to improve the fairness of the allocation of health resources in different regions of the country and reduce the fairness differences.The GM model,ARIMA model,human population ratio method and other single prediction models were used to predict the data of health resources in each region of the country,and the combined prediction model of the prediction error square and reciprocal method were used to predict the prediction error of each single prediction model and the combined prediction model,and the model with high prediction accuracy was selected to predict health resources.The data of health resources forecast and the target data of health resources in corresponding years in policy planning were compared and analyzed,and relevant suggestions on health resources planning and allocation were put forward.Research methodLiterature collection and data sources: through Chinese literature databases such as CNKI,VIP and Wanfang;web of science,Pubmed and other English literature databases to find relevant literature.In the statistical analysis,the population and gross regional product data of all provinces and cities were obtained from China Statistical Yearbook from 2004 to2021,and the geographical area data were obtained from the Ministry of Civil Affairs.Data on health resources are derived from China Health Statistical Yearbook(formerly known as China Health Statistical Yearbook and China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook)from 2004 to 2022.Data comparison and relevant suggestions were made based on health policy documents such as the 13 th and 14 th Five-Year Plan for the Development of health talents published by the official websites of health fields such as the Health Commission of China.Data analysis method: Microsoft Office Excel was used for data collection and sorting,and Theil index was calculated.Lorentz curve was drawn by matlab and Gini coefficient was calculated.matlab is used to establish GM model to predicted Gini coefficient and health resource data;R language established ARIMA model,Excel established human population ratio and combination prediction model to predict health resource data.Based on the analysis of the data obtained,the corresponding policies and related literature are put forward countermeasures and suggestions.Research resultsThe allocation of health resources in the central and eastern regions of the country is relatively rich,while the growth rate of the allocation of health resources and registered nurses in the western regions is higher.The supply of talents in the grassroots medical and health institutions is slightly insufficient,and the supply of talents in private institutions and individual organizations gradually increases.Education and professional titles of health human resources have been gradually improved,but there are still problems of low education and high professional titles.The supply of hospitals in urban and rural areas is balanced,and the proportion of private hospitals and hospitals run by individuals increases.The quality of the main body of medical supply has been improved,and the medical institutions are gradually refined and diversified.Beds in public institutions are the main body,with a relatively balanced distribution of beds between urban and rural areas,and an increased proportion of beds in private institutions.The allocation structure of health resources is unreasonable,the number of practicing physicians in some regions is greater than that of registered nurses,and the ratio of bed to nurse in all regions is less than 1.The differences of evaluation indicators and health resources within regions are greater than those between regions.The allocation of health resources by population is fairer than that by economy and geography.Population equity shows a declining trend,and the change trend of geographical equity and economic equity is not the same in each region.The direct prediction result of Gini coefficient is the expected development trend of equity in the allocation of health resources,and the indirect prediction result is the development trend of equity in the existing allocation of health resources.The results of fairness prediction are compared and analyzed,and the results of direct prediction and indirect prediction are consistent.In the prediction of health resources in each region of the country,the prediction effect of each single prediction model is good,and the combination prediction can improve the prediction accuracy to some extent.Research suggestion Strengthen the government’s targeted allocation of health resources in different regions,and jointly allocate health resources with relevant departmentsThe angles and ways of health resource allocation are determined according to the actual situation of health resource allocation in each region of the country.In some poverty-stricken areas with large population,the demand for health care is large and the attraction for talents is low.Therefore,the government can strengthen the input of health resources in these areas.Such as expanding the enrollment quota of medical students in the region,increasing the number of medical students trained in the region;Preferential policies will be implemented to attract medical students to the region for employment.It is important to improve the quality of health services in areas with small health needs.For areas with large health needs and relatively sufficient health resources,attention can be paid to improving the quantity of health resources and the quality of health services simultaneously.Based on the results of the health resource projections,the health sector can work with the education sector to develop regional health personnel development plans.Government health departments can rationally allocate the number of medical institutions and beds according to the output data such as the number of medical visits.At the same time,the complementary role of government and market in the allocation of health resources should be balanced.Focus on the application of emerging technologies such as the Internet and private institutions in the allocation of health resourcesPrivate institutions should play a complementary role in resource allocation,and public and private institutions should cooperate to coordinate health resources.More sophisticated and diversified medical services will be provided through private institutions to meet the rich medical needs of the people.The blockchain technology,which has been applied effectively in many fields,will be applied to the medical field.With the help of Internet medical treatment,medical association and medical community,high-quality medical resources will be lowered to the grassroots level and information will be securely transmitted between different institutions.Obtain precision medicine data and strengthen the application of individual prediction methods and combined prediction models in the health fieldThe basis of accurate prediction is the integrity and accuracy of data.It is necessary to further standardize the standards of health data collation and entry,and pay attention to the accuracy,real-time and availability of data.At present,multiple prediction results show that the combined prediction and combination prediction can optimize the prediction results of a single model.A variety of single prediction models can be further explored to apply a variety of prediction models in statistics to the health field,and a variety of model combination methods can be explored to further improve the accuracy of health resource data prediction.