Study On The Spatial Distribution Characteristics And Prediction Of Traditional Chinese Medicine Health Resources In China

Objective:The purpose of this study is to dynamically analyze the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM)medical institutions,TCM medical institution beds,TCM practicing(assistant)physicians and TCM pharmacists in China.The study aims to predict the changing trends of TCM health resources during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,and provide data support and policy recommendations for further optimizing the spatial layout of TCM health resources and achieving the strategic goal of full coverage in the TCM service field by 2030.Methods:We collected relevant data of TCM health resources from 31 provinces in China.We used global spatial autocorrelation analysis to evaluate the spatial correlation characteristics of various TCM health resources in China from 2012 to 2020,and global Moran’s I was calculated to assess spatial correlation and spatial differentiation degree of the regions;local spatial autocorrelation method was used to draw LISA maps to explore the spatial clustering types of TCM health resources in each province in 2012,2016,and2020.We also used GM(1,1)gray model,quadratic polynomial regression model,BP neural network model,and combination model to predict the development of various types of TCM health resources during the14 th Five-Year Plan period.Results:(1)Temporal results showed that from 2012 to 2020,the total amount of TCM health resources in China increased year by year,and the proportion of TCM health resources in the total medical resources increased year by year.However,the proportion of TCM pharmacists showed a downward trend.The growth trends of TCM health resources allocation per 10,000 population differed among the eastern,central,and western regions.(2)Spatial level results showed that the allocation of TCM health resources per 10,000 population in China’s provincial areas generally showed an upward trend,and there was an obvious unevenness in the distribution pattern of TCM health resources among provinces,with imbalance in individual regions.In2020,the regions with the highest number of TCM medical institutions and TCM medical institution beds per 10,000 population were Inner Mongolia and Gansu,respectively,while the regions with the highest number of TCM practicing(assistant)physicians and TCM pharmacists per 10,000 population were both Beijing.(3)Global spatial autocorrelation results showed that the various TCM health resources per 10,000 population in China in 2020 exhibited a positive spatial correlation,indicating that there was spatial clustering and spatial dependence phenomena of TCM health resources in China.Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that the spatial clustering types were mainly "high-high" and "low-low",and there were still significant differences in the allocation of TCM health resources among regions.(4)The prediction results showed that by 2025,the number of TCM medical institutions in China will reach 104,700,and the number of TCM practicing(assistant)physicians per 1,000 population will be 0.661,which can meet the policy requirements of the 14 th Five-Year Plan for TCM development.The number of TCM pharmacists will reach 147,230,which is close to the requirement of 150,000 in the 14 th Five-Year Plan for TCM talent development.Conclusion:The total amount of TCM health resources in China is increasing year by year,but the regional allocation of TCM health resources is unbalanced and exhibits spatial clustering characteristics.The study suggests that we should increase the support for TCM to improve the TCM health service system.Moreover,regulate the regional allocation structure to optimize the spatial layout of TCM health resources.Finally,apply precise measures according to the situation to promote the rationalization of TCM personnel flow.