Prediction Of Medical Insurance Fund For Employees Of Xinjiang Production And Construction Corps And Influencing Factors

Purpose:By analyzing the income and expenditure and accumulated balance of the medical insurance fund for the employees of the Corps,the problems in the daily operation of the medical insurance fund of the Corps are summarized.Predict the possible fund gap of the medical insurance fund for the employees of the Corps in the future,analyze the external factors that affect the balance of the medical insurance fund,and propose corresponding measures to achieve sustainable development of the medical insurance system for the employees of the Corps.Method:Static and dynamic data envelopment analysis is used to study the utilization efficiency of the medical insurance fund for the corps staff;The grey prediction model predicts the possible fund gap of the medical insurance fund for the Corps employees in the future;Grey correlation analysis analyzes the external factors that affect the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund of the Corps staff.Result:(1)The actual annual growth rate of social pooling fund income was 3.76%,which was 3.21% and2.59% higher than that of the overall medical insurance fund and individual account fund;The actual annual growth rate of social pooling fund expenditure is 3.71%,which is higher than the actual annual growth rate of overall medical insurance fund and individual account fund by 2.56% and 1.39%,and is basically the same as the actual annual growth rate of income;The actual annual growth rate of the accumulated balance of social pooling fund is 2.66%,which is lower than the actual annual growth rate of the overall medical insurance fund and individual account fund of 7.45% and 19.69%.(2)The comprehensive efficiency index reached 1.000,only the 14 th division was at the production front,and the comprehensive efficiency index of the 2nd division was 0.401,far from the production front;Total factor productivity index TFP > 1.000.Among them,the TFP index of the first and third divisions in South Xinjiang is more than 1.000,accounting for 50% of all divisions in South Xinjiang;The TFP index of the 7th,11 th and 12 th Divisions in North Xinjiang is more than 1.000,accounting for 27.27% of the total division cities in North Xinjiang.(3)During the period from 2021-2025,the overall income of the medical insurance fund for the Corps employees is greater than the overall expenditure,but the expenditure of the social pooling fund will exceed the income in 2025,resulting in the current income deficit and a large amount of personal account balance,and the personal account income will be 1.60 times of the expenditure in 2025.(4)The order of the main external factors affecting the income of the medical insurance fund of the Corps employees is as follows: the contribution base of the medical insurance unit of the employees>the individual contribution base of the medical insurance of the employees>the gross domestic product(GDP);The order of main external factors affecting the expenditure of the medical insurance fund of the Corps staff is as follows: the number of inpatient days of in-service staff in tertiary medical institutions B10>the number of inpatient days of retired staff in tertiary medical institutions B11>the number of inpatients of in-service staff in tertiary medical institutions B8>the gross domestic product(GDP)B7>the rate of hospitalization B3>the number of inpatients of retired staff in tertiary medical institutions B9.Conclusion:(1)The average annual growth rate of actual income and expenditure of the corps staff’s overall medical insurance fund is basically the same as that of expenditure.The expenditure pressure of the overall medical insurance fund is high,the accumulated balance of individual accounts is redundant,the accumulated balance of the overall medical insurance fund is insufficient,and the accumulated balance of the medical insurance fund is structurally unbalanced.(2)In all regions(division cities)of the Corps,there are problems such as ineffective returns on scale,large investment in medical insurance funds,small output,low ratio of investment to output,low management level of medical insurance funds and the need to improve the professional quality of the talent team.(3)Under the condition that the existing medical insurance policy remains unchanged,the medical insurance pooling fund for the employees of the Corps may have a deficit in the future,while the individual account fund will have a large balance.(4)The increase in the payment base brought about by the development of social economy is the main driving force for the continuous growth of the medical insurance fund for the employees of the Corps.The change in the disease spectrum and the aging of the population are the main reasons for the increase in the expenditure of the medical insurance fund for the employees of the Corps.