Study On Risk Factors Of Colorectal Polyps And Establishment Of Clinical Predictive Model

Objective:To study the risk factors of colorectal polyps,and establish a clinical predictive model,which can be used to predict and evaluate the risk of colorectal polyps.Methods:In this case-control study,patients who underwent colonoscopy in the Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from 2020 to 2022 were included and divided into polyp group and non-polyp group.A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for the occurrence of colorectal polyps.A predictive nomogram was established by R software based on these risk factors.The model was evaluated by the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic,and Bootstrap method was adopted to evaluate the calibration of the model.Results:A total of 1010 patients were included,with 524 patients in polyp group and 486 patients in non-polyp group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.027,95%CI: 1.016-1.039),male(OR=1.447,95%CI: 1.034-2.204),body mass index(BMI)(OR=1.054,95%CI: 1.010-1.099),diabetes mellitus(OR=1.468,95%CI:1.026-2.101),non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)(OR=1.390,95%CI:1.016-1.903),smoking history(OR=1.527,95%CI: 1.049-2.221)and uric acid(OR=1.002,95%CI: 1.000-1.003)were independent risk factors for colorectal polyps.The nomogram had a certain predictive ability for the risk of colorectal polyps,with an AUC of 0.673(95%CI: 0.640-0.706,P < 0.001).The calibration curve showed that the predicted risk of the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual outcomes.Conclusion:Age,male,BMI,diabetes mellitus,NAFLD,smoking history and uric acid were independent risk factors for colorectal polyps.The nomogram established based on these factors had clinical value in risk prediction of colorectal polyps and clinical screening of high-risk population.