Establishment Of Home Adverse Event Warning Model For Elderly Hypertension Patients

Objective:Through literature review and Delphi expert letter consultation,home adverse events in elderly patients with hypertension were determined,and risk factors of home adverse events in elderly patients with hypertension were further collected and extracted to build an early warning model of home adverse events in elderly patients with hypertension.Method:Through extensive literature reading and discussion in the early stage,the first round of home adverse events questionnaire for elderly hypertension patients was generated.Delphi method was used to conduct two rounds of correspondence consultation with 16 experts,discuss and modify the contents of correspondence consultation,and calculate the concentration degree of expert opinions,expert positive coefficient,Kendall coordination coefficient and expert authority coefficient.With the help of SPSSAU software,the Analytic Hierarchy process was used to build a hierarchical structure model and a judgment matrix,to determine the weight of the indicators of the adverse event model at home,and to conclude and analyze the importance of the indicators.Results:The recovery rate of the first round of expert correspondence questionnaire was93.75%,and that of the second round was 100%.Concentration degree of expert opinions:The mean value of importance assignment for all indicators ranges from 3.13 to 4.80 in the first round,and CV ranges from 0.09 to 0.27.The mean value of the second round of importance assignment ranges from 3.53 to 5.00,and CV ranges from 0.00 to 0.22.The expert authority coefficients were 0.90 and 0.93 respectively.The degree of coordination of expert opinions: Kendall ’W was 0.434 in the first round and 0.378 in the second round(P<0.01).The 9 first-level indicators and their weights are respectively(sorted by weight):Aortic dissection(0.2375),acute and subacute hypertension(0.1751),heart failure(0.1751),cerebrovascular disease(0.1307),coronary heart disease(0.1045),hypotension(0.0609),chronic renal failure(0.0451),adverse medication(0.0436),psychological disorders(0.027)5).The home adverse event warning index system for elderly hypertension patients was finally established,including 9 first-level indicators and 32 second-level indicators,and the home adverse event warning model for elderly hypertension patients was built.Conclusion:Through literature review,expert letter consultation and analytic hierarchy process,a home adverse event warning model for elderly hypertension patients was developed,which included 9 first-level indicators and 32 second-level indicators.The model objectively reflected the risk factors of home adverse events for elderly hypertension patients,which was scientific to a certain extent,but further reliability and validity analysis was needed to verify its feasibility.