Prognostic Analysis And Visual Model Establishment Of Neuroendocrine Prostate Cancer

Objective: We study the risk factors about the prognosis of neuroendocrine prostate cancer and draw the visual Nomogram to provide help for clinical evaluation.Methods: Through the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results Database(SEER)in the United States,we searched clinical data of NEPC from January 2010 to December 2018,used Kaplan Meier for univariate analysis,tested the differences between groups by Log-Rank,included the meaningful into Cox multivariate proportional hazard regression model,included the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of neuroendocrine prostate cancer into the Nomogram model,and used the consistency index and the area under the ROC curve,and the calibration curve to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.Results: The clinical data of 235 patients with neuroendocrine prostate cancer were included in this study,Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that age,AJCC stage,T stage,M stage,radiotherapy,pathological type,bone metastasis,liver metastasis and PSA affected the survival rate of patients with neuroendocrine prostate cancer(P<0.05),Cox multivariate regression model showed that age,AJCC stage,chemotherapy,pathological type and liver metastasis were independent prognostic factors of neuroendocrine prostate cancer(P<0.05).The consistency index of the model was 0.74(95% CI:0.69688-0.78312),the area under the ROC curve of 1-year survival rate was0.78,and the area under the ROC curve of 3-year survival rate was 0.79.The calibration curve of the model was close to the ideal curve.Conclusions: We found that age,AJCC stage,chemotherapy,pathological type and liver metastasis are independent prognostic factors of NEPC.The Nomogram model for predicting the 1-year and 3-year prognostic survival probability of neuroendocrine prostate cancer has good predictive ability and high consistency with the real results,which can provide some value for clinical evaluation of NEPC prognosis.