Determinants And Effects Of Optimism Bias

The optimism bias is the general belief that people will experience more positive events and fewer negative ones than other people.Previous studies of optimism bias have relied on hypothetical events or scenarios that may not have any direct connection to the participants in the study.In the context of the COVID-19(Corona Virus Disease 2019)pandemic of in China,this study aims to verify the previously controversial influencing factors of optimism bias,namely,the relationship between dispositional optimism,event severity and optimism bias.And to examine the protective effect of optimism bias on people’s physical and mental health in public health events.In study 1,4,313 participants nationwide were tested during the outbreak stage in February2020.The direct and indirect comparison methods were used to measure the participants’ optimism bias towards COVID-19.The "Life Orientation Scale" was used to measure the dispositional optimism of the subjects during the outbreak of the epidemic.The number of newly confirmed cases in China and the severity of the epidemic in each province divided by the National Health Commission were collected every day during the first test period as objective indicators of the severity of the epidemic.The results are as follows:(1)In the outbreak stage,there is a general optimism bias towards COVID-19;(2)In the outbreak stage,the mid-adult group(40-60 years old)and individual practitioners showed higher optimism bias,and the medical care group and manual workers showed lower optimism bias;(3)Optimists show greater optimism bias than pessimists.The optimism dimension of dispositional optimism can positively predict the optimism bias directly measured by individuals,but the pessimism dimension cannot.(4)As one of the objective indicators of epidemic severity,the number of newly confirmed cases per day positively predicted the degree of individual optimism bias;As the second objective indicator of epidemic severity,the severity of epidemic in provinces divided by the National Health Commission had no significant relationship with optimism bias.In study 2,1,767 subjects nationwide were tested during the epidemic phase in December2022.In addition to the direct comparison method and indirect comparison method,the optimism bias of the subjects about COVID-19 infection was measured.The self-designed Behavior Change Scale during COVID-19 was used to measure the level of protective behaviors taken by participants during COVID-19,the perceived Severity Scale of COVID-19 was used to measure subjects’ subjective severity of COVID-19,and the Anxiety Scale of COVID-19 was used to measure anxiety caused by COVID-19.The number of infected members of the social connections of the subjects was collected as an indicator of the objective severity of the epidemic.The results are as follows:(1)At the stage of infection prevalence,there is still a general optimism bias towards COVID-19;Compared with the results of study 1,it was found that with the development of the epidemic and the spread of infection,compared with the outbreak stage,people in the spread stage of infection were more likely to assess their own and others to be infected,and the optimism bias of COVID-19 infection decreased.(2)In the stage of infection popularization,males and adolescents(11-20 years old)showed a higher level of optimism bias,while employees in companies and institutions showed a lower level of optimism bias.(3)The number of infected members of the social relations of the subjects was used as the third objective indicators of the severity of the outbreak to predict negatively the optimistic bias,and the perceived severity of the subjects was used as a subjective indicator of the severity of the outbreak to predict positively the optimistic bias.(4)Optimism bias played a moderating role in the relationship between perceived severity of COVID-19 and anxiety of COVID-19,reducing the positive prediction of perceived severity on anxiety.(5)Perceived severity of COVID-19 positively predicted people’s optimism bias,which positively predicted people’s protective behavior during the epidemic period.Optimism bias partially mediates the relationship between perceived severity of COVID-19 and protective behavior during COVID-19.The following conclusions can be drawn from this study:(1)In the outbreak stage and the epidemic stage,people’s optimism bias about COVID-19 is widespread;With the development of the epidemic and the spread of infection,compared with the outbreak stage,the probability of people evaluating themselves and others to be infected with COVID-19 increased,and the optimism bias of COVID-19 infection decreased.(2)The optimism dimension of dispositional optimism can positively predict the optimism deviation;Different event severity indicators predicted optimism bias in different directions:The number of newly confirmed cases per day as an objective indicator of the severity of the epidemic and the perceived severity of the epidemic as a subjective indicator of the severity of the epidemic positively predicted optimism bias,and the number of infected people in social relations as another objective indicator of the severity of the epidemic negatively predicted optimism bias.(3)During the COVID-19 epidemic,people’s optimism bias can play a protective role for both body and mind.Optimism bias can reduce the positive prediction of perceived severity to anxiety,and perceived severity can improve the positive prediction of protective behavior by optimism bias.