The Process Of Bayesian Reasoning Of Two Probability Representation

Bayesian reasoning is an important part of probability reasoning, base-rate neglect and framing effects are always of great importance in this reseach. However, people have done a lot of work on the influence of probability representation, information structure and question form on Bayesian inference, but an integrated theoretical has not been obtained. In the sight of dual-process theories of reasoning and ecological rationality, this study tries to explore cognitive rule of Bayesian reasoning and adaptive strategies. This study is important for exploring cognitive rule of reasoning, judgment, decision making under uncertain condition.There are four experiments in the study,1) effects of probability representation on Bayesian reasoning, 2) homogeneities of construct of items between realistic, normal Bayesian problem , 3) influence of base rate on Bayesian inference, 4) framing effect on Bayesian reasoning. This study concludes The Expanded Model of Item and Knowledge.The main findings of this study are as follows:1) Process of verbal probability format on Bayesian reasoning is process of judgment.2) Results of Bayesian judgement are better than those of calculation.3) Frequency format is better than other format, but there are differences among participants of different subject.4) Strategies of Bayesian reasoning include right rule, error rule, proposition, probability heuristics and intuition. Desire impact on process of reasoning.5) It is the structure of item, not probability format, causes the difference of results of posterior probability.6) Base-rate neglect does not exist.7) Framing effect really is from the influence of personal desire.