An Intelligent Decision Support System For Aquaculture Pond Water Quality Management

Pond water quality is the key factor of limiting the output and quality of breed product. Because of lacking the scientific and reasonable method and instrument for evaluation, forecast and early-warning. The current water quality management is in the state of experience and semi-experience management. This method restricts fishery high output, high quality, high efficiency and sustainable development. In order to solve above problem, the paper using the theory of environment evaluation, of artificial intelligence, of biogeocenose and of fuzzy mathematics investigates the transformation rule of the every factor in the pond water quality, establishes the estimation model, forecast model and early-warning model, achieves the intelligent decision support system of pond water quality management which provides scientific theory, method and instrument for improving the pond water quality management.Pond water is a complicated and great system composed of many factors interactional. Based upon experiment and expert visit, after analyzing the factors of the pond water quality and other factors which influencing them through the method of system dynamics, the paper founds the system dynamics model for water temperature-, PH value, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, phosphor-, alkalinity, illumination and transparence, and also clarifies the relation of interaction of the factors of pond water quality.On the basis of the general analysis of every factor influencing the pond water quality, the paper founds the system of target estimation and evaluation standard after sorting by importance of the factors by means of Delphi and expert investigation. In the paper, Target weight was confirmed using the method of important program and relative membership of grade of the measured density, evaluation model of pond water quality was founded, and water quality was evaluated.Based on the analysis of the relation among all factors of the pond water quality, the paper founds system dynamics model to simulate air temperature, water temperature, sunlight and quantity of the alga biology, On the basis of much testing data, the paper establishes a forecast model for four key factors difficult to watching and measuring based on neural network fuzzy system, the model using the improved neural network forecasts the above four factors, and the result accords with the testing data approximately. So it solves the problem that the status of the water quality couldn't be predicted in time and it's hard to watching and measuring the factors dynamic.On the basis of the evaluation and forecast of pond water quality, the paper establishes forecast model of status of single factor and multi-factor of pond water quality, of trend, of survival index of fish, confirms the warning grade of pond water quality forecast, and puts forward the measures of forecast management of pond water quality.In the end, the paper follows the idea of software engineering, uses the tools ASP, VC++ and etc, achieves intelligent decision support system of pond water quality.