Study On The Planning Model And Decision Support System Concentrating Profit-making

Most of our country's leading oil-fields have entered their development age of supper high water cut which is accompanied with cost uprising. It's very important for optimizing profit, investment, cost, and workload to make a planning model concentrating profit-making. The model will improve the profit of oil-field development and the credibility of planning. After thoroughly reviewing development index prediction methods, planning methods, and software support systems of this country and the world-wide, and carrying on planning prediction methods and optimization methods study based on oil-field development practice, the author picked reserve prediction method and development index prediction methods suit for oil-field characters. The article includes t hree individually planning optimization m odel, profit-maximizing optimization model, production-maximizing o ptimization model, m ulti-object o ptimization m odel, which are established on the study of non-linear relationship of production and workload, the optimization model and arithmetic solution of the relationship. A software system of oil-field development planning decision support is supplied, setting development planning data tracing, index prediction, projects optimization, planning making, and financial evaluation on project into one package. The following is the achievement list: 1. Reserve is the substance base of oil-field development, the important data to evaluating development effect. Exact predication of reserve o r recovery ratio i s the first step for oil-field development trend. The author picked recovery ratio prediction methods suit for all ages of oil-field development. The beginning of the development applies regression equation, synthetic evaluation, and classification method. The water drive and decline method is exploited by the rest of the development. A new method, applying air permeability, oil gravity on the ground, and effective porosity, and density of pay well, is supplied suit for the beginning development. The method, which is proved suit for the new proven reserve of the nearest years, has the merit of easy data collection and fast calculation. The author also make a method, oil production rate and off-take rate, relationship, suit for the age of high water cut, giving a solution to the absence of recovery rate evaluation method to this age. 2. The most important for planning is production prediction, whose credibility directly effects the planning's. The author picked good methods for production prediction of one calendar year, Arps decline method, water drive curve, AR model, etc. The precondition is listed settling a base for the important index prediction. When predicting oil production for one calendar year, the method should be picked a ccording to the corresponding development age and c ombined with reserve prediction to improve the precision. 3.The author figured out economic limit initialization production for new well varying in depth to be used to decrease low performance well and investment. Economic limit production with consideration of liquid production varying is used to the play of cost-cut and the aged well's shutdown, stop, mergence, and transformation. Measure economic limit production provide information to low the bad profit return investment. A concept and calculation method of reserve economic-scale limit is set in the article. The geology condition and grade of reservoir rock is evaluated by well depth, air permeability, recovery ratio, and economic converting ratio. The evaluation fits the oil-field practice and provides theoretical base for judging financial character of reserve and making drilling workload decision. 4.A series of models with index, such as production, profit, investment, and cost, classified into 9 catalogues, are established by exploiting petroleum science, operation research, economics. The models include linear profit maximization model, linear production maximization model, linear multi-object optimization model, non-linear profit maximization model, non-linear production...