Ecological Security Mechanism And Assessment Method Based On Potential Danger Factors

Regional ecological security is the basis of National security from the point of view of nation. Gradually frequent and serious disasters become a realistic or latent huge threat to ecological security. Ecological security state assessment based on Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) in view of certain factors has become a research emphasis in this field at present, and the result reflects regional whole security. But people pay attention to not only certain factors but also potential danger, not only security state but also security trend, not only whole conclusion but also spatial security difference in practice. Ecological security is dynamic, its evolving process, trend and risk are more important. Ecological security is regional and it needs to be analyzed to local conditions. Ecological security is relative; the security is different under different condition due to different object. This paper encloses the task of project of National Ministry of Education Ph. D. Fund----Ecosystem Management and Ecological Security of Liaohe River watershed and Liaoning Province Department of Education Fund----Research on Ecological Security Assessment and Early Warning of Liaohe River watershed Based on GIS, in view of eco-security characteristic and deficiencies of P-S-R existed, studies the problems of regional ecological security potential danger, spatial assessment and security early warning. The achievement can be summarized as follows:1. Regional ecological security concept is proposed from the point of view of ecological potential danger. Regional ecological security is a function of security state, potential danger, evolving trend, time space and object. Ecological security concept has relative state security (relative state between organism and environment or other organism) and interrelation security(interrelation between organism and environment or other organism). It is a seriate function of time and space, so it is spatial concept and process concept. Ecological security research must involve potential danger analysis. Security defend emphasis must focus on potential danger. Security assessment must give prominence to spatial evaluation. Security early warning must attend to potential danger.2. Ecological security state evolving mechanism is studied based on potential danger. Ecological security evolving consists in the trigger and development of potential danger. Potential danger is in existence, probability of security state or interrelation deterioration is in existence. Potential danger trigger and transfer is risk of security, as which accelerates security state to evolve. Potential danger response and control is management behavior, as which restrains security state to deteriorate, both decide the result of eco-security evolving. Potential danger index is proposed by Graham method. The linchpin of eco-security evolving consists in the index. The bigger the index is, the bigger the evolving probability is. The smaller the index is, the smaller the evolving probability is. Maximum index shows most pessimistic state of coo-security, minimum index shows most optimistic state, probability index shows most probable state.3. Eco-security state—danger integrated evaluation indicator system is established. Eco-security evaluation not only assesses security sate, but also potential danger risk and response to eco-security event. Eco-security evaluation indicator system reflects not only security state but also potential danger influence of subsystem in the eco-system, and security consciousness, efficiency of response ability and measure of behavior object. Regional eco-security state—danger integrated evaluation indicator system is established according to the interrelation and interplay of each part of assessment object. The content includes multi-hierarchy state indicator system of P-S-R, multidimensional and multi-hierarchy potential danger indicator system on the basis of five spheres(atmosphere, hydrosphere, geoshere, biosphere, human activity sphere). Assessment indicator is fit for spatial evaluation based on GIS considering adequately time and spatial difference of influence factor.4. Eco-security state—danger coupling index assessment method is proposed. State index and potential danger index are two objects of eco-security assessment and each has its characteristic. The bigger the state index is, the more the security is(the smaller the security grade is, the more the security is). The smaller the potential danger index is, the more the security is. State—danger coupling index evaluation method is proposed by multi-objective decision-making rule. State index evaluation is calculated by fuzzy membership degree. Potential danger index evaluation is calculated by accident analyzing Graham method. Weight of indicator is fuzzy—entropy. Coupling index remarks not only eco-security state under the influence of potential danger factors, but also directs probable diversified warnings in the process of ecological security evolving. Early warning contour concept and method are proposed by coupling index.5. A method of data assigning from administration cell to gird cell is put forward. Eco-security evaluation visually is realized by using GIS. Regional whole security is concerned, but regional security difference and reciprocity of different security attribute unit is more concerned in the eco-security research field, so GIS technology is introduced. Data type of eco-security assessment model is grid vector data, which is computed by GIS. A method of data assigning from administration cell to gird cell is studied in view of spatial variability of different security influence factors and data source types. Assigning arithmetic of different spatial layer is written by Mapbasic and is realized by MapInfo and Vertical Mapper 26. Eco-security assessment model computation is realized, and grid thematic map, warning contour(surface) and three-dimensional map of eco-security are created by GIS interpolation and data assingning method, which shows visually spatial difference of eco-security assessment and early warning.6. It is verified and analyzed by a case study in the reaches of Liaohe River watershed in the paper. Eco-security mechanism and assessment study of Liaohe River watershed based on potential danger factors is innovative research. Eco-security state—danger integrated assessment indicator grid database of 2.5 Km×2.5 Km in the reaches of Liaohe River watershed is established based on MapInfo. Eco-security spatial difference is evaluated quantificationally based on GIS grid technology. The results are in accord with field survey and current water quality prediction of EU-Liaoning Integrated Environmental program by and large, so it is verified that this method is accurate on the whole. Ecological security most probable state warning contour(surface), most optimistic state warning contour(surface) and most pessimistic state warning contour are created by state—danger coupling index. The conclusion of this paper could provide decision-making support for regional ecology strategies and plan and it lays a foundation of eco-security early warning system.