Study On The Methods Of Outburst Danger On Crosscut Exposing Coal Prediction

Through theoretical analysis and simulation calculation as well as laboratory simulation tests and other means, this paper has studied the outburst of cross-cut uncovering coal fatalness prediction methods comprehensively and deeply, and identified a set of the most scientific way.This paper has analysis the general laws of the predictive science, and then proposed the standard to assess the forecasting methods. On the basis of this standard, the steps of this study are as follows: First, conducting theoretical analysis of the various forecasting methods; and then assessing the uncertainty of the measurement outcome of the various predictors; finally, scientifically verifying the various indexes.Aiming at the difficulties in the on-site scientific examination of outburst fatalness prediction methods, we have put forward using laboratory outburst simulation test to simulate the on-site cross-cut uncovering coal, and on this basis to conduct scientific test to various prediction methods. And from coal and gas outburst conditions and physical conditions, we have conducted a study about the similarity between outburst simulation test and spot test, and put forward a similar test design project.According to the characteristics to classify the various prediction methods, in which the expansion energy of initial released gas of coal and Methane desorption indexes belong to comprehensive index, while the D, K index can only be regarded as a combination of indexes. On this basis to theoretically analyze the various indexes.Analyzing the source of the uncertainty of measurement in the process of measuring the cross-cut uncovering outburst fatalness prediction indexes, we have separately established the mathematical model of assessing the uncertainty of measurement, and on the basis evaluated the measurement results of various indexes. And according to the larger uncertainty for the measurement of indexes, we have worked out the sub-scales of uncertainty, and for its main source, we have proposed improvement suggestions.On Fisher criteria conducting discriminate analysis to the measurement results of various indexes, we have obtained discriminate equation and the corresponding critical value by using various indexes to predict the fatalness of outburst, and then comparing to the results of outburst simulation test conducted sub-return discriminate analysis to the various indexes.Several cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal has test on-site the research results of the paper. And the result shows that using the initial release of the gas expansion energy indexes, not only are predicted accurately the result of laboratory outburst simulation test, but also cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal outburst fatalness on-site.The paper has 45 drawn Pictures, 32 Tables, and 111 References.