The Environmental Effect Cost Identification And Dynamic Assessment Theory On Hydropower Cascade Development Of Basin

Owing to the essential transform of social developing pattern from economic increasing to environmental-economic sustainable improvement, especially since 1980 in 20th century, environment crises is endangering the whole mankind seriously. Improving and setting up new environment assessment theory and enhancing the research on compound environment system are attached importance. The environment protection angeda of 21thcentury has regarded the regional environment as an important developing object. However the present analysis method is not satisfied whereas many years work, and the new perfect CEA theory system is still expected.The hydropower cascade development is a complex work. It will involve many aspects of a compound ecosystem. But the quantitative study for basin environment effect is scarce and its theory and method system is still not integrated. At present it is an approach hotspot in theory field. In the paper taking comprehensive evaluation as key, the main scheme is divided three main connective parts with each part being the basis of comprehensive decision-making appraise. Firstly based on basin the cumulative environment impact theory of basin hydropower exploration is discussed, and impact factors and impact cost are set up, then the dynamic comprehensive appraising mode is advanced. The main research emphasis are shown as the following.1. In the paper the cumulative environment effect and impact assessment on basin hydropower exploration are analyzed. At the same time the integrated economy-environment-society appraisal necessity is discussed aiming at the sustainable basin development.2. The research on cumulative effect or influence emphasizes the correlative relation and time-space distribution of each activity but not focusing on the micro and discrete physical changing procedure. Based onthe structure, time-space and dynamic equilibrium characters of ecosystem, in the paper system dynamic mechanism and cooperative principle are used to expatiate the producing mechanism of cumulative environment effect and relative approaches and types and appraisal principles are analyzed. Meanwhile environment effect curve and its essential non-linear dynamic characters are described and explained.The relevant concept-frame of basin cumulative environment effects (CEE) is approached and cumulative influence degree IIP is introduced for scaling the CEE. The innovated method could benefit environment influence study on large-scale development and benefit the perfection of CEE theory system.3. As an organism of structure and function, the compound ecosystem of basin is not only a multi-layer and multi-variable system also a harmonic time-space system. In such system each factor includes the scale changing, evolvement rate and exchanging pattern of substance elements embodied by structure forms and information elements embodied by function ability. All these factors will affect the comprehensive function of system seriously.From two aspects of structure (integrity) and function (sensitivity) of compound ecosystem, the estimation indexes system and differentiation model on environment effect of basin hydropower cascade development is attempted to set up. In chapter five we debate the environment cost factors, cost calculation methods and the quantitative changing relation of cost and environment quality. The analysis will in some degree make up the limitation of environment assessment. Meanwhile CEA make the traditional E1A frame great improvement because of its time-space coordination.5. According to the environment natural conditions of multi-objective and dynamic characters of environment effects with phases, pertinence between each projects and regional identity, time-series multi-index decision-making theory model is set up based on the three dimension character and the relativity and objectivity in assessing process.Except that a new kind of quantitative method of index value isreferred according to the factors changing and threshold characters. The new AHP im...