Method Of Dynamic Decision Making In Real Estate Construction Cost In The Main Material With Steel As An Example

Real estate development project is the livelihood of the people concerned countries people, is a focus of people’s food and clothing live line, is also the foundation of people’s living facilities. Nearly 60 years of development history in our country, its characteristic is large investment, long construction period, the use of turnover is slow, from the project development cycle generally divided into cost composition including land costs, premiums, public facilities, municipal engineering cost, construction installation engineering cost, fees and taxes, such as the construction and installation project cost is in the process of project implementation which accounts for the largest part of the cost. Due to the long construction period, take the cost of material price affected by the market price fluctuations, thus affecting the sussing out cost. How to control the construction and installation costs, reduce the cost, it is the eternal goal of real estate development project.In this paper, on the basis of consulting a large number of literature and practice, statistics about the different types of projects construction and installation costs, analysis sussing out cost indicators, to identify specific factors, including Labour, materials, construction machinery use fee, business management, profits, fees and taxes, analysis and identification, find out main influence factors, seize the main contradiction is studied. The main work is as follows:(1) through the development history and the status quo of the real estate sussing out cost management of real estate in our country, reference sussing out cost cost control method at home and abroad, to take the cost control and seize the main factors influencing the sussing out cost, adopt the method of effective analysis and control.(2) through statistical different construction and installation cost of the project, analysis sussing out cost composition and specific indicators, the proportion of the cost of sussing out, identify the main influencing index, were studied.(3) take a cost analysis method, a detailed analysis take the cost of each index, to identify the main factors influencing the maximum, easy to control, to select the largest proportion of construction and installation costs of main material component (accounts for 60% of the proportion of the sussing out cost form above) as the research object, from the main material usage, the biggest price fluctuates according to market changes in flexible rebar to concrete research.(4) according to the wide application of dynamic decision-making method, markov decision method, a dynamic model for reference, the chain embedded in time, will take the cost control into abstract markov decision process, in which the state space description of the specific problems is the rebar price market, build the mathematical model, selecting the optimal decision of purchasing time, guarantee the cost on the quantitative and scientific decision-making, take to reduce costs, improve the economic benefit.The end of this article as a whole plate small high-rise residential construction, is located in the 4th ring road, the construction area of 9903.44 square meters project as an example, the dynamic optimization decision model has been applied in the project material purchasing period, compared with general process of bidding procurement, dynamic decision-making and purchasing more flexibility and multiple resistance, the alternative procurement time, according to the dynamic system to observe the expectations of the purchase price, the decision whether to implement purchasing, to control and lower sussing out cost, the dynamic model, the feasibility and rationality to make practical guiding significance to the research topic and economic value.