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Analysis Of Transmission Investment In The Electricity Market Environment

Posted on:2004-03-25Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X Q JiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1102360092480608Subject:Power system and its automation
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Electric grid plays an important role in the emerging power market. On the one hand, transmission capability and configuration is one of the key factors which can impact on competition impartiality and each participant's payoff, on the other hand, insufficiency of transmission capacity could even endanger system security, so transmission planning is a remarkable issue; nevertheless, how to determine the optimal scheme and analysis investor's behavior under new environment still remains an open problem. According to the difference of market structure and regulation, there exist two patterns in transmission expansion, one is monopoly integrated investment, and the other is market-based decentralized investment. For the first pattern, this paper proposed a heuristic method that considered the demand elasticity. Each candidate plan is sorted by its performance index, which could be calculated through market simulation. Gradually expansion method is used to give the optimal scheme. The result shows that demand elasticity has great effect on transmission planning. Based on revised genetic algorithm, a dynamic planning method is proposed which including demand elasticity. High efficiency can be reached by recording better chromosomes' fitness. Each user's equilibrium point and value of lost load is calculated according to his elasticity factor.Fuzzy property of long-term demand and users' elasticity is considered based on the above research work. Load forecast is the foundation of power system planning, and the accuracy of describing future demand has direct effect on planning result. Long-term demand could be affected by many factors, these factors' impact can be generally described by fluctuation in a certain range, and fuzzy theory has special advantage in dealing with these factors. Based on decision-making theory, several criterions are given to make transmission investment decision. Different criterions has different standpoint, and which one should be adopted is mainly determined by decision-maker's experience and judgment of uncertain factors. An operation simulation model including FACTS devices is formed, then a dynamic planning algorithm is proposed. Test result shows that FACTS has obvious advantage on reducing operation cost and postponing investment.For the second pattern which called decentralized investment pattern, potentialtransmission investors and their relation to regulators is analyzed, then a multi-player transmission investment game is defined, and pure Nash equilibrium searching method based on non-cooperative game theory is proposed, the proposed method could assist regulators and investors to make decision. Numerical result shows that each participant's strategy is interactional, and the ultimate equilibrium point is determined by each player's available action and corresponding expected payoff. There could be no pure strategy equilibrium or more than one equilibrium points in the defined transmission investment game, so the notation of mixed strategy is introduced, and a mixed strategy equilibrium searching method based on revised genetic algorithm is proposed. The result forecasts each player's strategy in the form of probability, and it is important for investors to make further decision. Based on incomplete information game theory, this paper analyzed the Bayesian Nash equilibrium in two-player transmission investment game, and gave each player's equilibrium strategy under payoff uncertainty. Due to economies of scale and long term of cost return, cooperation among investors is a good choice to reduce investment risk, however, how to allocate fixed cost inside such coalition still remains an unsolved problem. This paper proposed a cost allocation method based on cooperative game theory. The defined performance index reflects each sub-coalition's dissatisfactory about a certain allocation scheme. Classical methods and game theory based methods are illustrated, and a multi-objective synthetical approach based on investor's willing to pay is proposed to de...
Keywords/Search Tags:transmission planning, power market, demand elasticity, game theory, Nash equilibrium, cost allocation
PDF Full Text Request
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